We extract densities and eccentricities of 139 sub-Jovian planets by analyzing transit time variations (TTVs) obtained by the Kepler mission through Quarter 12. We partially circumvent the degeneracies that plague TTV inversion with the help of an analytical formula for the TTV. From the observed TTV phases, we find that most of these planets have eccentricities of order a few percent. More precisely, the r.m.s. eccentricity is 0.018 +0.005 −0.004 , and planets smaller than 2.5R ⊕ are around twice as eccentric as those bigger than 2.5 R ⊕ . We also find a best-fit density-radius relationship ρ ≈ 3 g/cm 3 × (R/3R ⊕ ) −2.3 for the 56 planets that likely have small eccentricity and hence small statistical correction to their masses. Many planets larger than 2.5R ⊕ are less dense than water, implying that their radii are largely set by a massive hydrogen atmosphere.

We conduct a uniform analysis of the transit timing variations (TTVs) of 145 planets from 55 Kepler multiplanet systems to infer planet masses and eccentricities. Eighty of these planets do not have previously reported mass and eccentricity measurements. We employ two complementary methods to fit TTVs: Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations based on N -body integration and an analytic fitting approach. Mass measurements of 49 planets, including 12 without previously reported masses, meet our criterion for classification as robust. Using mass and radius measurements, we infer the masses of planets' gaseous envelopes for both our TTV sample as well as transiting planets with radial velocity observations. Insight from analytic TTV formulae allows us to partially circumvent degeneracies inherent to inferring eccentricities from TTV observations. We find that planet eccentricities are generally small, typically a few percent, but in many instances are non-zero.

We combine analytical understanding of resonant dynamics in two-planet systems with machine-learning techniques to train a model capable of robustly classifying stability in compact multiplanet systems over long timescales of 109 orbits. Our Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier (SPOCK) predicts stability using physically motivated summary statistics measured in integrations of the first 104 orbits, thus achieving speed-ups of up to 105 over full simulations. This computationally opens up the stability-constrained characterization of multiplanet systems. Our model, trained on ∼100,000 three-planet systems sampled at discrete resonances, generalizes both to a sample spanning a continuous period-ratio range, as well as to a large five-planet sample with qualitatively different configurations to our training dataset. Our approach significantly outperforms previous methods based on systems’ angular momentum deficit, chaos indicators, and parametrized fits to numerical integrations. We use SPOCK to constrain the free eccentricities between the inner and outer pairs of planets in the Kepler-431 system of three approximately Earth-sized planets to both be below 0.05. Our stability analysis provides significantly stronger eccentricity constraints than currently achievable through either radial velocity or transit-duration measurements for small planets and within a factor of a few of systems that exhibit transit-timing variations (TTVs). Given that current exoplanet-detection strategies now rarely allow for strong TTV constraints [S. Hadden, T. Barclay, M. J. Payne, M. J. Holman, Astrophys. J. 158, 146 (2019)], SPOCK enables a powerful complementary method for precisely characterizing compact multiplanet systems. We publicly release SPOCK for community use.

We develop and apply methods to extract planet masses and eccentricities from observed transittimingvariations (TTVs). First, we derive simple analytic expressions for the TTVthat include the effects of both first-and secondorder resonances. Second, we use N-body Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, as well as the analytic formulae, to measure the masses and eccentricities of 10planets discovered by Kepler that have not previously been analyzed. Most of the 10planets have low densities. Using the analytic expressions to partially circumvent degeneracies, we measure small eccentricities of a few percent or less.

We derive a criterion for the onset of chaos in systems consisting of two massive, eccentric, coplanar planets. Given the planets' masses and separation, the criterion predicts the critical eccentricity above which chaos is triggered. Chaos occurs where mean motion resonances overlap, as in Wisdom (1980)'s pioneering work. But whereas Wisdom considered the overlap of firstorder resonances only, limiting the applicability of his criterion to nearly circular planets, we extend his results to arbitrarily eccentric planets (up to crossing orbits) by examining resonances of all orders. We thereby arrive at a simple expression for the critical eccentricity. We do this first for a test particle in the presence of a planet, and then generalize to the case of two massive planets, based on a new approximation to the Hamiltonian (Hadden in prep). We then confirm our results with detailed numerical simulations. Finally, we explore the extent to which chaotic two-planet systems eventually result in planetary collisions.

We report the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovery of three terrestrial-size planets transiting L 98-59 (TOI-175, TIC 307210830)-a bright M dwarf at a distance of 10.6 pc. Using the Gaia-measured distance and broadband photometry, we find that the host star is an M3 dwarf. Combined with the TESS transits from three sectors, the corresponding stellar parameters yield planet radii ranging from 0.8 R ⊕ to 1.6 R ⊕. All three planets have short orbital periods, ranging from 2.25 to 7.45 days with the outer pair just wide of a 2:1 period resonance. Diagnostic tests produced by the TESS Data Validation Report and the vetting package DAVE rule out common false-positive sources. These analyses, along with dedicated follow-up and the multiplicity of the system, lend confidence that the observed signals are caused by planets transiting L 98-59 and are not associated with other sources in the field. The L 98-59 system is interesting for a number of reasons: the host star is bright (V= 11.7 mag, K=7.1 mag) and the planets are prime targets for further follow-up observations including precision radial-velocity mass measurements and future transit spectroscopy with the James Webb Space Telescope; the near-resonant configuration makes the system a laboratory to study planetary system dynamical evolution; and three planets of relatively similar size in the same system present an opportunity to study terrestrial planets where other variables (age, metallicity, etc.) can be held constant. L 98-59 will be observed in four more TESS sectors, which will provide a wealth of information on the three currently known planets and have the potential to reveal additional planets in the system.

I consider the dynamics of mean motion resonances between pairs of co-planar planets and derive a new integrable Hamiltonian model for planets' resonant motion. The new model generalizes integrable Hamiltonians previously derived for first-order resonances to the case of higher-order resonances by exploiting a surprising near-symmetry of the full, non-integrable Hamiltonians of higher-order resonances. Whereas past works have frequently relied on truncated disturbing function expansions to derive integrable approximations to resonant motion, I show that no such expansion is necessary to derive an integrable model. This enables the new model to accurately capture the dynamics of both first-and higher-order resonances for eccentricities up to orbit-crossing. I demonstrate that predictions of the new integrable model agree well with numerical integrations of resonant planet pairs. Finally, I explore the secular evolution of resonant planets' eccentricities. I show that the secular dynamics are governed by conservation of an AMD-like quantity. I also demonstrate that secular frequencies depend on planets' resonant libration amplitude and this generally gives rise to a secular resonance inside the mean motion resonance at large libration amplitudes. The integrable model derived in this work can serve as a framework for analyzing the dynamics of planetary MMRs in a wide variety of contexts.

We introduce a Bayesian neural network model that can accurately predict not only if, but also when a compact planetary system with three or more planets will go unstable. Our model, trained directly from short N-body time series of raw orbital elements, is more than two orders of magnitude more accurate at predicting instability times than analytical estimators, while also reducing the bias of existing machine learning algorithms by nearly a factor of three. Despite being trained on compact resonant and near-resonant three-planet configurations, the model demonstrates robust generalization to both nonresonant and higher multiplicity configurations, in the latter case outperforming models fit to that specific set of integrations. The model computes instability estimates up to 105 times faster than a numerical integrator, and unlike previous efforts provides confidence intervals on its predictions. Our inference model is publicly available in the SPOCK (https://github.com/dtamayo/spock) package, with training code open sourced (https://github.com/MilesCranmer/bnn_chaos_model).