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The barnacle Megabalanus coccopoma is native to shorelines from Baja California to Peru and has been introduced to a number of other locations including the Atlantic US SE coast, where it was first recorded in 2006. In 2009, the range of M. coccopoma in the SE US extended from Ft. Pierce, FL north to Cape Hatteras, NC with seasonal populations found as far north as Kitty Hawk, NC. During the exceptionally cold winter of 2009/2010, the range of M. coccopoma shifted dramatically due to the dieback of all monitored populations north of Florida. We examined body size, distribution, and density of M. coccopoma during the summers of 2010, 2011, and 2012 to describe the extent of the range retraction and the rate of range re-expansion. In 2010, recruits were found as far north as Tybee Island, Ga, but no established populations were found north of Florida. In 2011 recruits were found at Rodanthe, NC but established populations were still limited to Florida. By 2012 populations were established in Rodanthe, NC, slightly north of its previously known range limit. Estimated rates of range re-expansion were 255.8 km/yr in 2010 and 794.1 km/yr in 2011. Rates of re-expansion to the north in 2010 and 2011 were faster than have previously been reported for any marine species, and are one of the few rates published for any tropical marine invertebrate.

A major goal of invasion biology is to predict range shifts and potential range limits of nonnative species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to achieve these goals, but the predictive accuracy of these models is rarely tested using natural range shifts. The barnacle Megabalanus coccopoma is native to the eastern tropical Pacific and has been introduced to a number of locations globally including the southeastern United States. During the unusually cold winter months of 2010, the range of M. coccopoma within the USA SE retracted 825 km. The ability of the SDM MaxEnt to accurately predict the range retraction and M. coccopoma's range within the USA SE was tested using distributional data from before and after the range retraction. Three MaxEnt models were trained using data from the global range, the native range, and the USA SE introduced range.Only the model trained on data from the USA SE was able to accurately predict the entire extent of the range retraction and most known populations prior to the range retraction. Globally trained models may provide the most conservative estimates of potential distributions; however, niche shifts may limit the ability of these models to accurately predict range shifts.

Marine benthic populations are dependent on early life-history stages surviving multiple population bottlenecks. Failure at one or several of these bottlenecks can alter species’ patterns of distribution and abundance. The barnacle Semibalanus balanoides is found along temperate and sub-arctic shorelines of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Over the past century the southern range limits of S. balanoides have shifted hundreds of kilometres poleward on both coasts of the Atlantic. Here we tested if temperature limits fertilization and used these data, along with those from previous studies, to create mechanistic biogeographic models to understand which potential population bottlenecks in the early life-history of S. balanoides influence its distribution and abundance. In the western Atlantic survival of new recruits is probably more important in setting the southern range limit than the effects of temperature on early life-history stages because fertilization, brooding and the probability of larval release matching phytoplankton availability were all predicted to be high near the historical range edge. Phytoplankton mismatch may partially explain the ephemeral nature of S. balanoides in some parts of the English Channel. Further south along the coast of France predicted brooding success was reduced in a pattern consistent with historical range shifts in this region. Within Galicia, Spain fertilization was predicted to be low near the southern limit, and likely plays an important role in setting this range edge. Mismatches between phytoplankton abundance and larval release in Galicia may further limit reproductive success within this region.

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species.

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As the earth's climate has warmed, many tropical species have expanded their ranges poleward and encountered high‐latitude seasonal temperature regimes, in which further permanent expansion is limited by physiological vulnerability to cold temperatures. The barnacle Megabalanus coccopoma is native to shorelines from Baja California to Peru and has been introduced to many locations worldwide, including the southeastern USA. The ability of larvae to develop successfully at local temperatures can be an important factor limiting the spread of invasive species. To determine if cold temperatures limited larval success near the northern range limit of M. coccopoma along the Atlantic southeastern USA coast, we measured lower temperature limits to larval development, examined the effects of temperature on larval growth and energy accumulation, and calculated a larval energy budget to estimate the extent of potential larval dispersal in this region. Larvae were able to develop through metamorphosis at 16°C, which is much colder than sea surface temperatures during the spawning season in their invasive range, making it unlikely northern range limits are set by a lower temperature limit to larval development. Energy budgets suggest that for larvae produced at the northern end of the invasive range, long distance dispersal to sites far poleward of the current range limit is possible. Similar to the findings of the handful of other studies on cold tolerances of tropical marine invertebrate larvae, larvae should be successful far poleward of current adult distributions.