Impact-based forecasting and warning services aim to bridge the gap between producers and users of warning information by connecting and increasing synergies between the components of effective early warning systems. In this research, we proposed an automated warning message based on colour codes to trigger risk mitigation actions at the local level in the flood-exposed communities of Kelantan river basin, Malaysia. With a community-based approach for different groups of users (i.e. sectors), flood-impact scenarios were determined from past events and related to colour codes. These were developed into impact-based forecasting and warnings that can connect water levels, through the colour code, to localised guidance information tailored to sectors’ needs on how to respond to the expected flood. Overall, the colour coded impact-based warnings were found to be an easy and understandable way to link water level forecasts to the necessary risk mitigation actions. However, further investigation is needed to validate these findings under real-time conditions. IBF has vast potential in Malaysia, but its integration requires significant institutional changes, such as an inter-facing agency (long term) or team (short term), adjusted policy frameworks (standing orders on disasters), and new resource allocations for skills development and technological innovation from national to local levels. Overall, this paper aims to offer the first insight into impact-based forecasting and warning services in Malaysia to trigger further research and project developments.
For a country located in the equatorial region, flooding in the event of heavy rain is something that is inevitable. Malaysia is located in the equatorial region and experiences tropical climate. Kuala Lumpur, the capital city of Malaysia located in the Klang River Basin, is prone to flooding in the event of heavy rains in the catchment. Therefore, flood forecasting is a necessity, as the system helps in planning for flood events and helps to prevent loss of lives and minimise damages. Increased development in Klang Valley has resulted in the need of commercial space and housing demand in the Klang Valley. Therefore, many new areas have been developed for commercial land residential purposes. This has resulted in significant changes in land use due to the development since the past 10 years. The overall objective of the study is to enhance flood forecasting system for the provision of flood warning and emergency response with a convenient lead time. Expected outputs from the study are the incorporation of the effects of land-use change in flood model development and enhancement of the flood forecasting by using radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE).
Urban areas in tropical regions have higher flood risks due to the more frequent occurrence of intense convective rainfalls. The rising urbanization process have caused more surfaces to be covered with impervious materials, resulting in increased runoff. Modelling urban growth and its impact on urban hydrology is essential to ensure informed decision in the sustainable management and planning of cities in developing country like Malaysia. The aim of this research is to develop an integrated system for simulating future flood extents by coupling flood and urban growth models for the Upper Klang Ampang catchment which includes Kuala Lumpurcapital city. HEC-HMS was used for flood modelling while SLEUTH cellular automata model was employed to analyse urban growth in the catchment. The results indicate that using historical satellite images from 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2016 as input data layers alongwith slope, land use, hill shade, road and restricted area layers, a slight increase in urban growth from 2020 until 2050 is predicted which can cause the peak discharge to increase by about 11-15%. The integrated flood estimation-urban growth system can be used as an effective tool in urban planning and management for the city.
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