Recent Amazonian droughts have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate perturbations. Satellite and in situ observations have shown an increase in fire occurrence during drought years and tree mortality following severe droughts, but to date there has been no assessment of long-term impacts of these droughts across landscapes in Amazonia. Here, we use satellite microwave observations of rainfall and canopy backscatter to show that more than 70 million hectares of forest in western Amazonia experienced a strong water deficit during the dry season of 2005 and a closely corresponding decline in canopy structure and moisture. Remarkably, and despite the gradual recovery in total rainfall in subsequent years, the decrease in canopy backscatter persisted until the next major drought, in 2010. The decline in backscatter is attributed to changes in structure and water content associated with the forest upper canopy. The persistence of low backscatter supports the slow recovery (>4 y) of forest canopy structure after the severe drought in 2005. The result suggests that the occurrence of droughts in Amazonia at 5-10 y frequency may lead to persistent alteration of the forest canopy.radar | canopy water content | rainforest | QSCAT | canopy disturbance

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO 2 emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

During the last decade, strong negative rainfall anomalies resulting from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic have caused extensive droughts in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting persistent effects on the forest canopy. In contrast, there have been no significant impacts on rainforests of West and Central Africa during the same period, despite large-scale droughts and rainfall anomalies during the same period. Using a combination of rainfall observations from meteorological stations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU; 1950–2009) and satellite observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; 1998–2010), we show that West and Central Africa experienced strong negative water deficit (WD) anomalies over the last decade, particularly in 2005, 2006 and 2007. These anomalies were a continuation of an increasing drying trend in the region that started in the 1970s. We monitored the response of forests to extreme rainfall anomalies of the past decade by analysing the microwave scatterometer data from QuickSCAT (1999–2009) sensitive to variations in canopy water content and structure. Unlike in Amazonia, we found no significant impacts of extreme WD events on forests of Central Africa, suggesting potential adaptability of these forests to short-term severe droughts. Only forests near the savanna boundary in West Africa and in fragmented landscapes of the northern Congo Basin responded to extreme droughts with widespread canopy disturbance that lasted only during the period of WD. Time-series analyses of CRU and TRMM data show most regions in Central and West Africa experience seasonal or decadal extreme WDs (less than −600 mm). We hypothesize that the long-term historical extreme WDs with gradual drying trends in the 1970s have increased the adaptability of humid tropical forests in Africa to droughts.

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.

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[1] This paper presents a high-resolution dual-Doppler analysis of lake breeze mesoscale circulation induced by an elongated reservoir with a mean width of ∼2 km and an area of 125 km 2 . Compared to previous meso-g-scale lake breeze studies based on point measurements or aircraft observations, the present study provides both a unique quantification and a high-resolution spatial and temporal 3-D visualization (several hundred meters and 5 min, respectively) of the kinematic structure of the lake breeze initiation and evolution. Visible satellite images show a cloud-free zone over the lake and adjacent land areas that was promoted by subsidence associated with the lake breeze circulation. The background synoptic-scale wind flow was almost parallel to the major axis of the lake, and distinct lake breeze frontal zones formed along both shorelines spanning the length of the lake. DualDoppler analyses showed updrafts in the frontal zones, perturbation horizontal velocities of 1.5 m s −1 on both sides of the lake, and maximum downdrafts of 2 m s −1 centered over the lake. Vertical vorticity in the boundary layer was produced by differential friction between the smooth lake and adjacent land. The circulations are robust and are maintained during the day against a minor change in background wind direction. The study shows that the circulations produced by a small lake can generate significant mesoscale circulations that influence local climatology and identifies the importance of including such small mesoscale processes in global forecast models.Citation: Asefi-Najafabady, S., K. Knupp, J. R. Mecikalski, R. M. Welch, and D. Phillips (2010), Ground-based measurements and dual-Doppler analysis of 3-D wind fields and atmospheric circulations induced by a meso-g-scale inland lake, J. Geophys.

[1] This paper examines Doppler radar observations of springtime lake breeze (LB) circulations produced by a small reservoir (mean width of $2 km), Wheeler Lake, on the Tennessee River in northern Alabama. The analysis allows for the formation of a general understanding of the flow structures as a composite of many LB circulation events. It is found that LB circulation, once formed, is robust and persistent over a range of background or synoptic-scale wind flows despite the small size of Wheeler Lake and the relatively small differences between land and lake temperature (often a few degrees Celsius) that drive the LB circulation. The formation, location, strength, and inland penetration of the Wheeler Lake breeze are highly sensitive to the background wind speed and direction with respect to the lakeshore, resulting in complex spatial and temporal variations in the LB characteristics. The LB front is most prominent as a radar fine line when the ambient flow is offshore (opposing the LB background wind) and perpendicular to the orientation (120°-300°) of the lake. For wind speeds <4-5 m s À1 , a radar-detectable thin line delineating the LB front appears primarily on the upwind side of the lake, either to the north or south, while synoptic-scale winds stronger than $5 m s À1 tend to destroy the breeze front entirely. If the background wind is parallel to lake orientation and the wind is ≤4 m s À1 , the LB circulations often develop on both sides of the lake. The radar fine line often appears patchy and broad for low-wind conditions near 2 m s À1 . Overall, the findings of this study show that small lakes can generate persistent local circulations that follow similar patterns of behavior and respond to the synoptic flow as large lakes or sea breezes.

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