Marine life of the Southern Ocean has been facing environmental changes and the direct impact of human activities during the past decades. Benthic communities have particularly been affected by such changes although we only slowly understand the effect of environmental changes on species physiology, biogeography, and distribution. Species distribution models (SDM) can help explore species geographic responses to main environmental changes. In this work, we modeled the distribution of four echinoid species with contrasting ecological niches. Models developed for [2005–2012] were projected to different time periods, and the magnitude of distribution range shifts was assessed for recent‐past conditions [1955–1974] and for the future, under scenario RCP 8.5 for [2050–2099]. Our results suggest that species distribution shifts are expected to be more important in a near future compared to the past. The geographic response of species may vary between poleward shift, latitudinal reduction, and local extinction. Species with broad ecological niches and not limited by biogeographic barriers would be the least affected by environmental changes, in contrast to endemic species, restricted to coastal areas, which are predicted to be more sensitive.

Aim: Species distribution modelling (SDM) represents a valuable alternative to predict species distribution over vast and remote areas of the ocean. We tested whether reliable SDMs can be generated for benthic marine organisms at the scale of the Southern Ocean. We aimed at identifying the main large-scale factors that determine the distribution of the selected species. The robustness of SDMs was tested with regards to sampling effort, species niche width and biogeography.Location: Southern Ocean. Methods:The impact of sampling effort was tested using two sets of data: one set with all presence-only data available until 2005, and a second set using all data available until 2015 including recent records from campaigns carried out during the Census of Antarctic Marine Life (CAML) and the International Polar Year (IPY) period (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010). The accuracy of SDMs was tested using a ground-truthing approach by comparing recent presence/absence data collected during the CAML and IPY period to pre-CAML model predictions. Results:Our results show the significance of the SDM approach and the role of abiotic factors as important drivers of species distribution at broad spatial scale. The addition of recent data to the models significantly improved the prediction of SDM and changed the respective contributions of environmental predictors. However, the intensity of change varied between models depending on sampling tools, species ecological niche width and biogeographic barriers to dispersal. Main conclusions:We highlight the need for new data and the significance of the ground-truthing approach to test the accuracy of SDMs. We show the importance of data collected through international initiatives, such as the CAML and IPY to the improvement of species distribution modelling at broad spatial scales. Finally, we discussed the relevance of SDM as a relevant marine conservation tool particularly in the context of climate change and the definition of Marine Protected Areas. K E Y W O R D SAntarctic, biogeography, conservation, Echinoidea, ecological niche, random forest, sampling effort, sub-Antarctic B I OS K E TCHSalomé Fabri-Ruiz is a PhD student. She is interested in species distribution modelling and spatial ecology applied to large scale area. Her current research focus on quantifying and mapping benthic marine biodiversity in the Southern Ocean using several statistical and mathematical methods.