Seagrasses, a functional group of marine flowering plants rooted in the world's coastal oceans, support marine food webs and provide essential habitat for many coastal species, playing a critical role in the equilibrium of coastal ecosystems and human livelihoods. For the first time, the probability of extinction is determined for the world's seagrass species under the Categories and Criteria of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Several studies have indicated that seagrass habitat is declining worldwide. Our focus is to determine the risk of extinction for individual seagrass species, a 4-year process involving seagrass experts internationally, compilation of data on species' status, populations, and distribution, and review of the biology and ecology of each of the world's seagrass species. Ten seagrass species are at elevated risk of extinction (14% of all seagrass species), with three species qualifying as Endangered. Seagrass species loss and degradation of seagrass biodiversity will have serious repercussions for marine biodiversity and the human populations that depend upon the resources and ecosystem services that seagrasses provide.

ABSTRACT. Although ecosystem services are increasingly recognized as benefits people obtain from nature, we still have a poor understanding of how they actually enhance multidimensional human well-being, and how well-being is affected by ecosystem change. We develop a concept of "ecosystem service elasticity" (ES elasticity) that describes the sensitivity of human well-being to changes in ecosystems. ES Elasticity is a result of complex social and ecological dynamics and is context dependent, individually variable, and likely to demonstrate nonlinear dynamics such as thresholds and hysteresis. We present a conceptual framework that unpacks the chain of causality from ecosystem stocks through flows, goods, value, and shares to contribute to the well-being of different people. This framework builds on previous conceptualizations, but places multidimensional well-being of different people as the final element. This ultimately disaggregated approach emphasizes how different people access benefits and how benefits match their needs or aspirations.Applying this framework to case studies of individual coastal ecosystem services in East Africa illustrates a wide range of social and ecological factors that can affect ES elasticity. For example, food web and habitat dynamics affect the sensitivity of different fisheries ecosystem services to ecological change. Meanwhile high cultural significance, or lack of alternatives enhance ES elasticity, while social mechanisms that prevent access can reduce elasticity.Mapping out how chains are interlinked illustrates how different types of value and the well-being of different people are linked to each other and to common ecological stocks. We suggest that examining chains for individual ecosystem services can suggest potential interventions aimed at poverty alleviation and sustainable ecosystems while mapping out of interlinkages between chains can help to identify possible ecosystem service trade-offs and winners and losers. We discuss conceptual and practical challenges of applying such a framework and conclude on its utility as a heuristic for structuring interdisciplinary analysis of ecosystem services and human wellbeing.

Globally, seagrass ecosystems are considered major blue carbon sinks and thus indirect contributors to climate change mitigation. Quantitative estimates and multi-scale appraisals of sources that underlie long-term storage of sedimentary carbon are vital for understanding coastal carbon dynamics. Across a tropical-subtropical coastal continuum in the Western Indian Ocean, we estimated organic (C org ) and inorganic (C carb ) carbon stocks in seagrass sediment. Quantified levels and variability of the two carbon stocks were evaluated with regard to the relative importance of environmental attributes in terms of plant-sediment properties and landscape configuration. The explored seagrass habitats encompassed low to moderate levels of sedimentary C org (ranging from 0.20 to 1.44% on average depending on species-and site-specific variability) but higher than unvegetated areas (ranging from 0.09 to 0.33% depending on site-specific variability), suggesting that some of the seagrass areas (at tropical Zanzibar in particular) are potentially important as carbon sinks. The amount of sedimentary inorganic carbon as carbonate (C carb ) clearly corresponded to C org levels, and as carbonates may represent a carbon source, this could diminish the strength of seagrass sediments as carbon sinks in the region. Partial least squares modelling indicated that variations in sedimentary C org and C carb stocks in seagrass habitats were pri- Electronic supplementary material: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10021-017-0170-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Author contributions MG, MB, and HWL conceived and designed the study. MG, LDL, GSS, ME, EA, LMR, SB, and LMN performed field research and laboratory analyses. MG, LDL, MD, GSS, AK, and MB analysed data. MG led the writing of the paper with substantial input from MB, MD, and LDL; other authors commented on and edited the manuscript.*Corresponding author; e-mail: martin.gullstrom@su.se Ecosystems (2018) 21: 551-566 DOI: 10.1007/s10021-017-0170-8 Ó 2017 The Author(s). This article is an open access publication 551marily predicted by sediment density (indicating a negative relationship with the content of carbon stocks) and landscape configuration (indicating a positive effect of seagrass meadow area, relative to the area of other major coastal habitats, on carbon stocks), while seagrass structural complexity also contributed, though to a lesser extent, to model performance. The findings suggest that accurate carbon sink assessments require an understanding of plant-sediment processes as well as better knowledge of how sedimentary carbon dynamics are driven by cross-habitat links and sink-source relationships in a scale-dependent landscape context, which should be a priority for carbon sink conservation.

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Abstract:Mangroves are recognized for their valued ecosystem services provision while having the highest carbon density among forested ecosystems. Yet they are increasingly threatened by deforestation, conversion to agriculture and development, reducing the benefits they provide for local livelihoods, coastal protection and climate change mitigation. Accordingly, accurate estimates of mangrove area and change are fundamental for developing strategies for sustainable use, conservation and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+). The Zambezi River Delta in Mozambique contains one of the largest mangrove forests in Africa, and deforestation has been reported to be substantial, however these estimates vary widely. We used Landsat imagery from 1994, 2000 and 2013, to estimate a total current mangrove area of 37,034 ha, which is a net increase of 3723 ha over 19 years. The land cover change assessment was also used to provide perspective on ecosystem carbon stocks, showing that the Zambezi Delta mangrove ecosystem acts as a large carbon sink. Our findings reinforce the importance of conducting land cover change assessments using coherent data and analytical models, coupled with field validation. Broader application of our approach could help quantify the rates of natural change from erosion and land aggradation contrasted with anthropogenic causes.

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ABSTRACT. Transformations in social-ecological systems to overturn poverty and ecosystem degradation require approaches to knowledge synthesis that are inclusive and open to creative innovation. We draw on interviews with participants and in-depth process observation of an iterative knowledge cocreation process in Kenya and Mozambique that brought together scientists, community representatives, government representatives, and practitioners who had expertise or experience in poverty and/or coastal natural resource use and management. We analyze the communicative spaces opened by techniques of system diagrams and future scenarios, and provide a rich account of the emergent process of developing a "shared conceptual repertoire" as a basis for effective communication and knowledge synthesis. Our results highlight the difficulties of challenging dominant narratives and the creative potential that exists in reflecting on their underpinning assumptions. In our analysis, stories and lived experiences emerged as key means shaping the construction of shared concepts and ideas. We conclude by outlining the implications of designing knowledge cocreation processes that support the task of devising systemic interventions that are robust for a range of future scenarios. This includes embracing the role of stories in generating shared meanings and opening up spaces for exploration of knowledge assumptions that are embedded in intervention narratives.