Abstract. Drought is a defining characteristic of many grasslands worldwide. Yet we have little understanding of how drought structures grassland communities and the degree to which physiological drought tolerance advantages plants in grasslands. We characterized physiological drought tolerance (W crit ) for a large number of species in a mesic grassland community (Konza Prairie, KS, USA). We then examined the relationships between W crit and a number of other key functional traits, and tested whether physiological tolerance of drought underlay success across a number of ecological contrasts-topographic position, burn frequency, and grazing-with 17 years of abundance data. Physiological drought tolerance of Konza species covered almost the full range known to plants globally. Consistently, physiologically drought-tolerant species had thin roots, while associations with other traits were inconsistent across functional groups. In this mesic grassland, physiological drought tolerance appears to increase the abundance of plants in xeric uplands, but does not in the mesic lowlands. Physiological drought tolerance did not alter species responses to changes in burning or grazing. In contrast to W crit , species with high root tissue density were more abundant in uplands and lowlands than species with low root tissue density largely irrespective of grazing or burning regimes. In all, drought appears to have a limited role in structuring the Konza plant community. As such, more severe or frequent droughts in the region would likely restructure the Konza plant community in ways that are currently not observable.Key words: burning; drought tolerance; ecophysiology; functional traits; grazing; Konza Prairie.

Future climate change is likely to reduce the floristic diversity of grasslands. Yet the potential consequences of climate-induced plant species losses for the functioning of these ecosystems are poorly understood. We investigated how climate change might alter the functional composition of grasslands for Konza Prairie, a diverse tallgrass prairie in central North America. With species-specific climate envelopes, we show that a reduction in mean annual precipitation would preferentially remove species that are more abundant in the more productive lowland positions at Konza. As such, decreases in precipitation could reduce productivity not only by reducing water availability but by also removing species that inhabit the most productive areas and respond the most to climate variability. In support of this prediction, data on species abundance at Konza over 16 years show that species that are more abundant in lowlands than uplands are preferentially reduced in years with low precipitation. Climate change is likely to also preferentially remove species from particular functional groups and clades. For example, warming is forecast to preferentially remove perennials over annuals as well as Cyperaceae species. Despite these predictions, climate change is unlikely to unilaterally alter the functional composition of the tallgrass prairie flora, as many functional traits such as physiological drought tolerance and maximum photosynthetic rates showed little relationship with climate envelope parameters. In all, although climatic drying would indirectly alter grassland productivity through species loss patterns, the insurance afforded by biodiversity to ecosystem function is likely to be sustained in the face of climate change.