We assessed seven decades of change in the largest known population of the endangered endemic Boswellia elongata Balf. F. (Burseraceae) on Socotra Island (Yemen). To quantify the population change we evaluated tree number and locations on digitized images from various sources in the period 1956-2017 and combined this with direct field measurements of the population between 2011 and 2017. Our study reveals that the Homhil Nature Sanctuary B. elongata population shows a continuous decline since 1956. The steady but slow natural decline was strongly accelerated by two catastrophic cyclones in November 2015, when 38% of the trees were directly destroyed by strong winds. During the following 2 years 29% of the remaining trees died additionally. The remaining population has a bell-shaped size distribution; most trees are around 40 cm in diameter (range 18 to 70 cm). Tree ring analysis of 11 dead trees with a diameter of 29 to 44 cm without bark, resulted in estimated tree ages between 80 and 101 years. We estimate that similar-sized trees showing strong signs of senescence have a maximum age of a little over 100 years. The age structure of the Homhil population is, therefore, unbalanced with large sized trees prevailing. Natural regeneration is absent for decades. Viable seeds are available and have been shown to germinate, but the development of seedlings into saplings is a bottleneck. If the decline continues at the current rate, only 30 trees will remain there in 2036. Protection, planting and awareness activities are needed to keep this unique frankincense tree in Homhil Nature Sanctuary.
The endemic Boswellia species (Burseraceae) on Socotra Island (Yemen) are of great local significance due to their various local ethnobotanical uses. However, despite the fact that these trees are endangered, little is known about their biology. We tested seed germination rates in controlled experiments (trials of 21 days) for two subsequent years and for nine endemic taxa of Boswellia occurring on Socotra Island. For this, seeds were collected island-wide from a wide range of localities and for several populations per species. We observed differences in germination among Boswellia species, among species and localities and among both years, which indicates that the development of seeds is strongly affected by external ecological factors. Although we noted a large variation in seed germination (relatively high in Boswellia socotrana), and half of the species showed relatively low mean daily germination, our study indicated that all endangered endemic Frankincense Tree taxa of Socotra harbor the potential for in situ conservation through recruitment, given that known impacts can be reduced in local replantation areas (e.g., grazing).
The Socotra Archipelago (Yemen) is an interesting biodiversity hotspot, with a significant proportion of endemic species that have evolved to survive in an arid subtropical environment, inscribed as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. The terrestrial ecosystems of Socotra face several threats, including climate change, overgrazing and soil degradation. Socotra Island has four endemic species of the genus Commiphora (Burseraceae). Little is known about their local distribution and ecology, yet these trees could be useful indicator species. Our study focuses on the distribution and niche characterisation of the four endemic Commiphora species of Socotra and how climate change may affect them. The aim is to improve insights into their habitats and to provide an essential basis for future local management plans and ecological restoration. We compared the current distribution with the forecasted potential distribution under a CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate scenario, allowing us to define target conservation areas and assess potential local extinction risks. To achieve this, we collected distribution data in the field throughout Socotra Island, covering the current distribution ranges of the four species. To assess the potential distribution of these species, we applied three models (GAM, MaxEnt, RandomForest) using bioclimatic, topographic and soil variables. Forecasts under a climate change scenario were made using bioclimatic variables from the CMCC-CESM2 climate model for two different socioeconomic pathways. The distribution of three endemic Socotran Commiphora is mainly correlated to clay content in the soil and winter precipitation, while C. socotrana is affected by seasonal precipitation and temperature. Under different potential future climate scenarios, the distribution of C. ornifolia is predicted to remain stable or increase, while C. parvifolia distribution could increase, yet C. planifrons and C. socotrana are predicted to undergo a strong reduction of suitable areas and an upward shift in the mountains. Our results highlight that it is essential to conserve the unique terrestrial ecosystems in Socotra and to preserve these endemic trees which have a wide range of ecosystem services. Updates on the predicted extinction risk assessment are fundamental to understand conservation priorities and strategize future actions to ensure the persistence of Socotran myrrh trees and other endangered endemic tree taxa on the island.
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