Background:Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking.Methods:We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates.Results:There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer.Conclusions:The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report.

There is considerable evidence that human genetic variation influences gene expression. Genome-wide studies have revealed that mRNA levels are associated with genetic variation in or close to the gene coding for those mRNA transcripts – cis effects, and elsewhere in the genome – trans effects. The role of genetic variation in determining protein levels has not been systematically assessed. Using a genome-wide association approach we show that common genetic variation influences levels of clinically relevant proteins in human serum and plasma. We evaluated the role of 496,032 polymorphisms on levels of 42 proteins measured in 1200 fasting individuals from the population based InCHIANTI study. Proteins included insulin, several interleukins, adipokines, chemokines, and liver function markers that are implicated in many common diseases including metabolic, inflammatory, and infectious conditions. We identified eight Cis effects, including variants in or near the IL6R (p = 1.8×10−57), CCL4L1 (p = 3.9×10−21), IL18 (p = 6.8×10−13), LPA (p = 4.4×10−10), GGT1 (p = 1.5×10−7), SHBG (p = 3.1×10−7), CRP (p = 6.4×10−6) and IL1RN (p = 7.3×10−6) genes, all associated with their respective protein products with effect sizes ranging from 0.19 to 0.69 standard deviations per allele. Mechanisms implicated include altered rates of cleavage of bound to unbound soluble receptor (IL6R), altered secretion rates of different sized proteins (LPA), variation in gene copy number (CCL4L1) and altered transcription (GGT1). We identified one novel trans effect that was an association between ABO blood group and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) levels (p = 6.8×10−40), but this finding was not present when TNF-alpha was measured using a different assay , or in a second study, suggesting an assay-specific association. Our results show that protein levels share some of the features of the genetics of gene expression. These include the presence of strong genetic effects in cis locations. The identification of protein quantitative trait loci (pQTLs) may be a powerful complementary method of improving our understanding of disease pathways.

Background The rarity of mutations in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM make it difficult to estimate precisely associated cancer risks. Population-based family studies have provided evidence that at least some of these mutations are associated with breast cancer risk as high as those associated with rare BRCA2 mutations. We aimed to estimate the relative risks associated with specific rare variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM via a multicentre case-control study. Methods We genotyped 10 rare mutations using the custom iCOGS array: PALB2 c.1592delT, c.2816T>G and c.3113G>A, CHEK2 c.349A>G, c.538C>T, c.715G>A, c.1036C>T, c.1312G>T, and c.1343T>G and ATM c.7271T>G. We assessed associations with breast cancer risk (42 671 cases and 42 164 controls), as well as prostate (22 301 cases and 22 320 controls) and ovarian (14 542 cases and 23 491 controls) cancer risk, for each variant. Results For European women, strong evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for PALB2 c.1592delT OR 3.44 (95% CI 1.39 to 8.52, p=7.1×10−5), PALB2 c.3113G>A OR 4.21 (95% CI 1.84 to 9.60, p=6.9×10−8) and ATM c.7271T>G OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.42 to 85.7, p=0.0012). We also found evidence of association with breast cancer risk for three variants in CHEK2, c.349A>G OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.95), c.1036C>T OR 5.06 (95% CI 1.09 to 23.5) and c.538C>T OR 1.33 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.67) (p≤0.017). Evidence for prostate cancer risk was observed for CHEK2 c.1343T>G OR 3.03 (95% CI 1.53 to 6.03, p=0.0006) for African men and CHEK2 c.1312G>T OR 2.21 (95% CI 1.06 to 4.63, p=0.030) for European men. No evidence of association with ovarian cancer was found for any of these variants. Conclusions This report adds to accumulating evidence that at least some variants in these genes are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer that is clinically important.

Triple-negative (TN) breast cancer is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer associated with a unique set of epidemiologic and genetic risk factors. We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study of TN breast cancer (stage 1: 1529 TN cases, 3399 controls; stage 2: 2148 cases, 1309 controls) to identify loci that influence TN breast cancer risk. Variants in the 19p13.1 and PTHLH loci showed genome-wide significant associations (P < 5 × 10(-) (8)) in stage 1 and 2 combined. Results also suggested a substantial enrichment of significantly associated variants among the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) analyzed in stage 2. Variants from 25 of 74 known breast cancer susceptibility loci were also associated with risk of TN breast cancer (P < 0.05). Associations with TN breast cancer were confirmed for 10 loci (LGR6, MDM4, CASP8, 2q35, 2p24.1, TERT-rs10069690, ESR1, TOX3, 19p13.1, RALY), and we identified associations with TN breast cancer for 15 additional breast cancer loci (P < 0.05: PEX14, 2q24.1, 2q31.1, ADAM29, EBF1, TCF7L2, 11q13.1, 11q24.3, 12p13.1, PTHLH, NTN4, 12q24, BRCA2, RAD51L1-rs2588809, MKL1). Further, two SNPs independent of previously reported signals in ESR1 [rs12525163 odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, P = 4.9 × 10(-) (4)] and 19p13.1 (rs1864112 OR = 0.84, P = 1.8 × 10(-) (9)) were associated with TN breast cancer. A polygenic risk score (PRS) for TN breast cancer based on known breast cancer risk variants showed a 4-fold difference in risk between the highest and lowest PRS quintiles (OR = 4.03, 95% confidence interval 3.46-4.70, P = 4.8 × 10(-) (69)). This translates to an absolute risk for TN breast cancer ranging from 0.8% to 3.4%, suggesting that genetic variation may be used for TN breast cancer risk prediction.

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a key inflammatory cytokine, signalling to most tissues by binding to a soluble IL-6 receptor (sIL-6r), making a complex with gp130. We used 1273 subjects (mean age 68 years) from the InCHIANTI Italian cohort to study common variation in the IL-6r locus and associations with interleukin 6 receptor (IL-6r), IL-6, gp130 and a battery of inflammatory markers. The rs4537545 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) tags the functional non-synonymous Asp358Ala variant (rs8192284) in IL-6r (r(2)=0.89, n=343). Individuals homozygous for the rs4537545 SNP minor allele (frequency 40%) had a doubling of IL-6r levels (132.48 pg/ml, 95% CI 125.13-140.27) compared to the common allele homozygous group (68.31 pg/ml, 95% CI 65.35-71.41): in per allele regression models, the rs4537545 SNP accounted for 20% of the variance in sIL-6r, with P=5.1 x 10(-62). The minor allele of rs4537545 was also associated with higher circulating IL-6 levels (P=1.9 x 10(-4)). There was no association of this variant with serum levels of gp130 or with any of the studied pro- and anti-inflammatory markers. A common variant of the IL-6r gene results in major changes in IL-6r and IL-6 serum levels, but with no apparent effect on gp130 levels or on inflammatory status in the general population.

Interleukin-1-receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) modulates the biological activity of the proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 (IL-1) and could play an important role in the pathophysiology of inflammatory and metabolic traits. We genotyped seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that capture a large proportion of common genetic variation in the IL-1RN gene in 1256 participants from the Invecchiare in Chianti study. We identified five SNPs associated with circulating IL-1RA levels with varying degrees of significance (P-value range ¼ 0.016-4.9 Â 10 À5 ). We showed that this association is likely to be driven by one haplotype, most strongly tagged by rs4251961. This variant is only in weak linkage disequilibrium (r 2 ¼ 0.25) with a previously reported variable number of tandem repeats polymorphism (VNTR) in intron-2 although a second variant, rs579543, that tags the VNTR (r 2 ¼ 0.91), may also be independently associated with IL-1RA levels (P ¼ 0.03). We found suggestive evidence that the C allele at rs4251961 that lowers IL-1RA levels is associated with an increased IL-1b (P ¼ 0.03) level and may also be associated with interferon -g (P ¼ 0.03), a-2 macroglobulin (P ¼ 0.008) and adiponectin (P ¼ 0.007) serum levels. In conclusion, common variation across the IL-1RN gene is strongly associated with IL-1RA levels.

Copy number variants (CNVs) play important roles in a number of human diseases and in pharmacogenetics. Powerful methods exist for CNV detection in whole genome sequencing (WGS) data, but such data are costly to obtain. Many disease causal CNVs span or are found in genome coding regions (exons), which makes CNV detection using whole exome sequencing (WES) data attractive. If reliably validated against WGS-based CNVs, exome-derived CNVs have potential applications in a clinical setting. Several algorithms have been developed to exploit exome data for CNV detection and comparisons made to find the most suitable methods for particular data samples. The results are not consistent across studies. Here, we review some of the exome CNV detection methods based on depth of coverage profiles and examine their performance to identify problems contributing to discrepancies in published results. We also present a streamlined strategy that uses a single metric, the likelihood ratio, to compare exome methods, and we demonstrated its utility using the VarScan 2 and eXome Hidden Markov Model (XHMM) programs using paired normal and tumour exome data from chronic lymphocytic leukaemia patients. We use array-based somatic CNV (SCNV) calls as a reference standard to compute prevalence-independent statistics, such as sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratio, for validation of the exome-derived SCNVs. We also account for factors known to influence the performance of exome read depth methods, such as CNV size and frequency, while comparing our findings with published results.

Panels of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) stratify risk for breast cancer in women from the general population, but studies are needed assess their use in a fully comprehensive model including classical risk factors, mammographic density and more than 100 SNPs associated with breast cancer. A case–control study was designed (1,668 controls, 405 cases) in women aged 47–73 years attending routine screening in Manchester UK, and enrolled in a wider study to assess methods for risk assessment. Risk from classical questionnaire risk factors was assessed using the Tyrer–Cuzick model; mean percentage visual mammographic density was scored by two independent readers. DNA extracted from saliva was genotyped at selected SNPs using the OncoArray. A predefined polygenic risk score based on 143 SNPs was calculated (SNP143). The odds ratio (OR, and 95% confidence interval, CI) per interquartile range (IQ‐OR) of SNP143 was estimated unadjusted and adjusted for Tyrer–Cuzick and breast density. Secondary analysis assessed risk by oestrogen receptor (ER) status. The primary polygenic risk score was well calibrated (O/E OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.86–1.34) and accuracy was retained after adjustment for Tyrer–Cuzick risk and mammographic density (IQ‐OR unadjusted 2.12, 95% CI% 1.75–2.42; adjusted 2.06, 95% CI 1.75–2.42). SNP143 was a risk factor for ER+ and ER− breast cancer (adjusted IQ‐OR, ER+ 2.11, 95% CI 1.78–2.51; ER− 1.81, 95% CI 1.16–2.84). In conclusion, polygenic risk scores based on a large number of SNPs improve risk stratification in combination with classical risk factors and mammographic density, and SNP143 was similarly predictive for ER‐positive and ER‐negative disease.