Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are increasingly used over the Indian region to forecast extreme rainfall events. However, studies which explore the application of high-resolution rainfall simulations obtained from the WRF model in urban hydrology are limited. In this paper, the utility of a model coupling framework to predict urban floods is explored through the case study of Bangalore city in India. This framework is used to simulate multiple extreme events that occurred over the city for the monsoons of years 2020 and 2021. To address the uncertainty from the WRF model, a 12-member convection permitting ensemble is used. Model configurations using Kain Fritsch and WSM6 parameterization schemes could simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of the selected event. The city is easily flooded with rainfall events above a threshold of 60 mm/day and to capture the response of the urban catchment, the Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM) is used in this study. Flood forecasts are created using the outputs from the WRF ensemble and the Global Forecasting System (GFS). The high temporal and spatial resolution of the rainfall forecasts (<4 km at 15-min intervals), has proved critical in reproducing the urban flood event. The flood forecasts created using the WRF ensemble indicate that flooding and water levels are comparable to the observed whereas the GFS underestimates these to a large extent. Thus, the coupled WRF–PCSWMM modelling framework is found effective in forecasting flood events over an Indian city.
Global urban population is projected to double by 2050. This rapid urbanization is the driver of economic growth but has environmental challenges. To that end, there is an urgent need to understand, simulate and disseminate information about extreme events, routine city operations and long term planning decisions.This paper describes an effort underway in India involving an interdisciplinary community of meteorology, hydrology, air quality, computer science from national and international institutes. The urban Collaboratory is a system of systems for simulating weather, hydrology, air quality, health, energy, transport and economy, and its interactions. Study and prediction of urban events involve multi-scale observations and cross-sector models; heterogeneous data management and enormous computing power. The consortia program (NSM_Urban) is part of ‘weather ready cities’, under the aegis of India’s National Supercomputing Mission.The ecosystem ‘Urban Environment Science to Society (UES2S)’, builds on the integrated cyberinfrastructure with a science gateway for community research and end-user service with modeling and inter-operable data. The Collaboratory has urban computing, stakeholder participation, and a coordinated means to scaffold projects and ideas into operational tools. It discusses the design and the utilization of the High Performance Computing (HPC) as a science cloud platform for bridging urban environment and data science, participatory stakeholder applications and decision making. The system currently integrates models for high impact urban weather, flooding, air quality, and simulating street and building scale wind flow and dispersion. The program with the work underway is ripe for interfacing with regional and international partners and this paper provides an avenue towards that end.
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