We compare seven established risk elicitation methods and investigate how robustly they explain eleven kinds of risky behavior with 760 individuals. Risk measures are positively correlated; however, their performance in explaining behavior is heterogeneous and, therefore, difficult to assess ex ante. Greater diversification across risk measures is conducive to closing this knowledge gap. What we find is that performance increases considerably if we combine single-item risk measures to form multiple-item risk measures. Results are improved the more single-item measures they contain, and also if these single-item risk measures use different elicitation methods. Interestingly, survey items perform just as well as incentivized experimental items in explaining risky behavior.

We use a repeated incentivized risk experiment in rural Thailand to test determinants of changes in the level of individual risk aversion over time. We find that risk aversion significantly changes between 2008 and 2013 as a result of macro-and micro-level shocks. Strong macroeconomic recovery following the 2007/08 financial crisis makes people more risk-seeking, whereas macroeconomic normalization thereafter increases risk aversion parameters. On the micro-level, we observe that negative economic and agricultural shocks increase risk aversion. Subjective perceptions of well-being and expectations also play a role but do not drive the macro-micro determinants of changes in individual risk aversion.

RÉSUME Empirical Links Between Housing Markets and Economic ResilienceHousing markets, which are large and subject to sharp swings, shape to a great extent countries' exposure to economic crises and their capacity to recover from them. This paper analyses the transmission of housing-related shocks to the real economy: it investigates the role that policy plays in (a) mitigating or amplifying shocks and (b) facilitating or hampering a recovery. It considers macroprudential measures, rental regulation, taxation and land use restrictions. The aim is to investigate, which housing policy-related reforms can foster greater economic resilience. Among other results, it finds that a tighter macroprudential stance is generally linked to a lower likelihood of economic crisis and that higher effective rates of housing taxation are associated with smoother housing cycles. JEL Classification codes: E37, E5, R31De taille importante et sujets à de brusques retournements de cycle, les marchés du logement sont, dans une large mesure, un déterminant de l'exposition d'un pays aux crises économiques et de sa capacité à s'en redresser. On analyse dans cette étude la transmission des chocs liés au secteur du logement dans l'économie réelle et l'on s'interroge sur le rôle des politiques publiques et comment elles (a) atténuent ou amplifient les chocs, et (b) facilitent ou entravent le redressement de l'économie. Sont examinées les mesures macroprudentielles, la réglementation locative, la fiscalité et les restrictions à l'occupation des sols. L'objectif est d'examiner, parmi les réformes de la politique du logement, celles qui sont susceptibles d'accroître la résilience de l'économie. Entre autres résultats, on observe qu'une orientation macroprudentielle plus restrictive va généralement de pair avec une plus faible probabilité de crise économique, et qu'une augmentation des taux d'imposition effectifs de l'immobilier résidentiel s'accompagne d'un lissage des cycles sur le marché du logement.Classification JEL : E37, E5, R31

for helpful comments on various drafts of this paper as well as Cooper Allen for the edits. We would also like to thank seminar participants at the

We investigate the impact of peer observation on consumption decisions using a lab-in-field experiment. Respondents make consumption decisions either alone or under peer observation. We find evidence for peer effects. We are able to study these further by looking into the mechanism and performing detailed heterogeneity analysis. Concerning the mechanisms, we find evidence for an information channel. Further, we show that the consumption choice is influenced by how many people made the same decision previously, but not by who those people are, hence finding evidence of a psychological channel. Respondents with higher cognitive ability are less susceptible to peer effects, while people living in small villages are more susceptible.

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