Atrial Fibrillation (AFib) is a heart condition that occurs when electrophysiological malformations within heart tissues cause the atria to lose coordination with the ventricles, resulting in “irregularly irregular” heartbeats. Because symptoms are subtle and unpredictable, AFib diagnosis is often difficult or delayed. One possible solution is to build a system which predicts AFib based on the variability of R-R intervals (the distances between two R-peaks). This research aims to incorporate the transition matrix as a novel measure of R-R variability, while combining three segmentation schemes and two feature importance measures to systematically analyze the significance of individual features. The MIT-BIH dataset was first divided into three segmentation schemes, consisting of 5-s, 10-s, and 25-s subsets. In total, 21 various features, including the transition matrix features, were extracted from these subsets and used for the training of 11 machine learning classifiers. Next, permutation importance and tree-based feature importance calculations determined the most predictive features for each model. In summary, with Leave-One-Person-Out Cross Validation, classifiers under the 25-s segmentation scheme produced the best accuracies; specifically, Gradient Boosting (96.08%), Light Gradient Boosting (96.11%), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (96.30%). Among eleven classifiers, the three gradient boosting models and Random Forest exhibited the highest overall performance across all segmentation schemes. Moreover, the permutation and tree-based importance results demonstrated that the transition matrix features were most significant with longer subset lengths.
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