This paper takes de Bono's explanation of 'design thinking' as the starting point for a report on a doctoral research project that began with a conventional 'why?' question, and then, instead of looking for an 'explanation', chose to look forward in time to establish an understanding of 'how to' think differently about a recurring problem. The catalyst for this work was observation of otherwise competent managers making desperately wrong decisions when good decision making was crucial to their company's future. The initial choice to 'look forward' when designing the research strategy was made well before there was a clear understanding of what was being observed. Given that trajectory, this paper explores the process by which a simulation was created and then used in conjunction with a comparatively new approach to data collection.
In Persian 'Hooshmand' means intelligence. The simulation Hoosmand-1 creates a clash between intellectual objectivity and emotional reactions to unexpected events. The simulated environment challenges skilled and experienced senior project managers to navigate their way through a set of complex decisions. Initial conditions are complicated but comprehensible, requiring application of knowledge and diligence. Then factors altering the context are introduced to create complex conditions in which standard responses no longer apply. We review outcomes of the project for which Hooshmand-1 was designed. In regard to project portfolio management, cost-benefit ratios and business strategies received more attention than resource availability. In regard to quality decisionmaking, the effectiveness of team cognition shows up as a key faction shaping performance under stress. 'Black swan' events, groupthink traps and Abilene Paradox thinking can all inhibit quality decisions and Hooshmand-1 provides a context for their emergence and thoughtful analysis.
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