[1] This study is concerned with the quantitative prediction of dust storms in real time. An integrated wind erosion modeling system is used for 24-, 48-, and 72-hour forecasts of northeast Asian dust events for March and April 2002. The predictions are validated with synoptic records from the meteorological network and dust concentration measurements at 12 stations in China, Japan, and Korea. The predicted spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dust events and the predicted near-surface dust concentrations are found to agree well with the observations. The validation confirms the capacity of the modeling system in quantitative forecasting of dust events in real time. On the basis of the predictions, dust activities in northeast Asia are examined using quantities such as dust emission, deposition, and load. During an individual dust episode, dust sources and intensities vary in space and time, but on average the Gobi Desert, the Hexi (Yellow River West) Corridor, the Chaidam Basin, the Tulufan Basin, and the fringes of the Talimu and Zhunge'er Basins are identified to be the main source regions. The Gobi Desert is the strongest dust source, where the maximum dust emission reaches 5000 mg m À2 s À1 and the net dust emission reaches 16 t km À2 d À1 in March and April 2002. Net dust deposition covers a large area, with the Loess Plateau receiving about 1.6 to 4.3 t km À2 d
À1. A zone of high dust load exists along the northern boundary of the Tibet Plateau, with a maximum of around 2 t km À2 situated over the Gobi Desert. The total dust emission, total dust deposition, and total dust load for the domain of the simulation are estimated. The average (maximum) total dust emission is 11.5 Â 10 6 (65.7 Â 10 6 ) t d À1 , the average (maximum) total dust deposition is 10.8 Â 10 6 (51.4 Â 10 6 ) t d À1 , and the average (maximum) total dust load is 5.5 Â 10 6 (15.9 Â 10 6 ) t.
The Sr and Nd isotopic, rare earth element (REE) and major element compositions, together with mineral and grain-size proportions, are reported for aeolian loess deposits and desert sands from several Chinese localities. The study was carried out in order to examine regional variations in the isotopic and geochemical features of these aeolian sediments, and to constrain the provenance of Chinese loess. Samples include loesses from the Tarim and Junggar basins and desert sands from the Taklimakan desert in north-west China, loess from the Ordos area and desert sands from the Tengger and Mu-us deserts in north-central China, as well as loess and desert sands from the Naiman area, north-east China. REE distributions show minimal variation among the Chinese loess deposits, whereas those for the desert sands show regional variations. New isotopic data document a latitudinal variation in Sr and Nd isotopic features for the loesses and desert sands. The Naiman and Junggar loesses have distinctly lower 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios and higher e Nd (0) values than the loesses from the Tarim Basin, the Ordos area and the Loess Plateau. Among the desert sands, the Naiman samples have higher e Nd (0) values than the Taklimakan, Tengger and Mu-us samples. Isotopic data suggest that loesses of the Loess Plateau were supplied from the Tarim Basin loesses and Taklimakan Desert sand, and that the Naiman loesses were supplied from the Junggar Basin loesses. The latitudinal variation in the loesses and desert sands may be partly explained by isotopic variations reported previously for moraines from the Tianshan and west Kunlun Mountains, which are possible sources for the loesses and desert sands. These inferences on the provenance of the loesses and desert sands are consistent with the dust transport pattern over East Asia.
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