Aim To test if physiological acclimation can buffer species against increasing extreme heat due to climate change. Location Global. Time period 1960 to 2015. Major taxa studied Amphibians, arthropods, brachiopods, cnidarians, echinoderms, fishes, molluscs, reptiles. Methods We draw together new and existing data quantifying the warm acclimation response in 319 species as the acclimation response ratio (ARR): the increase in upper thermal limit per degree increase in experimental temperature. We develop worst‐case scenario climate projections to calculate the number of years and generations gained by ARR until loss of thermal safety. We further compute a vulnerability score that integrates across variables estimating exposure to climate change and species‐specific tolerance through traits, including physiological plasticity, generation time and latitudinal range extent. Results ARR is highly variable, but with marked differences across taxa, habitats and latitude. Polar terrestrial arthropods show high ARRs [95% upper confidence limit (UCL95%) = 0.68], as do some polar aquatic invertebrates that were acclimated for extended durations (ARR > 0.4). While this physiological plasticity buys 100s of years until thermal safety is lost, combination with long generation times leads to decreased potential for evolutionary adaptation. Additionally, 27% of marine polar invertebrates have no capacity for acclimation and reptiles and amphibians have minimal ARR (UCL95% = 0.16). Low physiological plasticity, long generations times and restricted latitudinal ranges combine to distinguish reptiles, amphibians and polar invertebrates as being highly vulnerable amongst ectotherms. Main conclusions In some taxa the combined effects of acclimation capacity and generation time can provide 100s of years and generations before thermal safety is lost. The accuracy of assessments of vulnerability to climate change will be improved by considering multiple aspects of species’ biology that, in combination may increase persistence under extreme heat events, and increase the probability for evolutionary rescue.

The West Antarctic Peninsula shelf is a region of high seasonal primary production which supports a large and productive food web, where macronutrients and inorganic carbon are sourced primarily from intrusions of warm saline Circumpolar Deep Water. We examined the cross-shelf modification of this water mass during mid-summer 2015 to understand the supply of nutrients and carbon to the productive surface ocean, and their subsequent uptake and cycling. We show that nitrate, phosphate, silicic acid and inorganic carbon are progressively enriched in subsurface waters across the shelf, contrary to cross-shelf reductions in heat, salinity and density. We use nutrient stoichiometric and isotopic approaches to invoke remineralization of organic matter, including nitrification below the euphotic surface layer, and dissolution of biogenic silica in deeper waters and potentially shelf sediment porewaters, as the primary drivers of cross-shelf enrichments. Regenerated nitrate and phosphate account for a significant proportion of the total pools of these nutrients in the upper ocean, with implications for the seasonal carbon sink. Understanding nutrient and carbon dynamics in this region now will inform predictions of future biogeochemical changes in the context of substantial variability and ongoing changes in the physical environment.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change’.

The north-west Pacific kelp, Undaria pinnatifida, was first discovered in Europe on the Mediterranean coast of France (1971) and introduced to Brittany for aquaculture (1983). In the north-east Atlantic, it occurs in Spain, France, the British Isles, Belgium and Holland. The first UK record was in the Hamble estuary (1994) and it was found off Plymouth in 2003. The UK distribution is presently restricted to the south of England and the northern Irish Sea. We assessed the distribution of U. pinnatifida and native kelps and their allies in Plymouth Sound (at 0 to +1 m relative to Chart Datum). Undaria pinnatifida was widespread along rocky shores, on other hard substrata and grew in the same areas as Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides. Undaria pinnatifida was significantly more abundant on vertical substrata than on upward-facing hard substrata. It was almost as common as all of the other kelp species combined on vertical substrata but was outnumbered by native species on upward-facing substrata. Undaria pinnatifida has become the visually dominant macroalga in marinas and has spread to surrounding natural habitats in Plymouth Sound. The extent to which it will outcompete native kelps requires monitoring, especially in conservation areas.

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