Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

The results are compatible with the hypothesis that the increase in breast cancer risk with increasing BMI among postmenopausal women is largely the result of the associated increase in estrogens, particularly bioavailable estradiol.

Background:The relationship between erythrocyte membrane fatty acids and postmenopausal breast cancer risk was analyzed previously only by retrospective studies, which suggested a protective effect of increased saturation index (SI), i.e., the ratio of membrane stearic to oleic acid. We investigated the relationships in a prospective study of hormones, diet, and prediagnostic breast cancer (the ORDET study) conducted in northern Italy. Methods: A total of 4052 postmenopausal women were followed for an average of 5.5 years; 71 cases of invasive breast cancer were identified. For each case subject, two matched control subjects were chosen randomly from among cohort members. The various fatty acids in erythrocyte membranes were measured as a percentage of total fatty acids. Conditional logistic regression analysis evaluated the association between membrane fatty acid composition and breast cancer risk. The SI, which is influenced by the activity of the enzyme delta 9 desaturase (⌬9-d), was also investigated. All statistical tests were twosided. Results: Oleic (highest versus lowest tertile of percentage of total fatty acids, odds ratio [OR] = 2.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.24 to 6.28) and monounsaturated fatty acids (highest to lowest tertile, OR = 5.21; 95% CI = 1.95 to 13.91) were positively associated with breast cancer risk. The SI (highest to lowest tertile, OR = 0.29; 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.64) was inversely associated with breast cancer risk. The analysis suggested an inverse association between total polyunsaturated fatty acids and breast cancer risk, but individual polyunsaturated fatty acids behaved differently. There was no association between saturated fatty acids and breast cancer risk. Conclusions: We have found that monounsaturated fats and SI in erythrocyte membranes

One of the aims of the EPIC study is to produce accurate descriptions of the dietary habits of the participants recruited in the 27 EPIC centers of 10 European countries. To do this, different dietary assessment instruments were developed and applied to capture the wide range of diets characterizing the different European populations. Three different food frequency questionnaires were developed for Italy: one for the centers of Varese, Turin and Florence, one for Ragusa and one for Naples. These inquired about eating habits over the previous year and were completed by 46,839 Italian EPIC participants. Specially developed software analyzed the responses and linked them to food composition tables in order to provide a nutritional breakdown of individual and collective diets. A further aim of EPIC was to develop a method of rendering data from different dietary questionnaires comparable. To do this, dietary data were collected from a sample of about 8% of the Italian EPIC cohort, using a standardized computer-driven 24-hour dietary recall interview, and then compared with the dietary data collected by the questionnaires. This paper provides an extensive description of the technical features and performance of the food frequency questionnaires and the 24-hour recall interview, including a comparison of estimates of the intake of different food groups provided by the two instruments. From this comparison, the repeatability and reliability of consumption estimates was assessed, resulting in indications for improving data comparability. The paper also presents food frequency questionnaire estimates of the daily intake of foods and nutrients by center, sex and age group, as well as information on dietary habits such as place and time of intake, and food preparation and preservation methods as provided by the 24-hour recall interview. The picture that emerged is that Italian eating habits are undergoing marked changes, with a tendency to less healthy eating. Documentation of these changes in relation to age, sex and region provides an essential starting point for investigating the influence of diet on the development of cancer and other chronic diseases.

EPIC-Italy is the Italian section of a larger project known as EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition), a prospective study on diet and cancer carried out in 10 European countries. In the period 1993-1998, EPIC-Italy completed the recruitment of 47,749 volunteers (15,171 men, 32,578 women, aged 35-65 years) in 4 different areas covered by cancer registries: Varese (12,083 volunteers) and Turin (10,604) in the Northern part of the country; Florence (13,597) and Ragusa (6,403) in Central and Southern Italy, respectively. An associate center in Naples enrolled 5,062 women. Detailed information for each individual volunteer about diet and life-style habits, anthropometric measurements and a blood sample was collected, after signing an informed consent form. A food frequency questionnaire specifically developed for the Italian dietary pattern was tested in a pilot phase. A computerized data base with the dietary and life-style information of each participant was completed. Blood samples were processed in the same day of collection, aliquoted (RBC, WBC, serum and plasma) and stored in liquid nitrogen containers. Follow-up procedures were validated and implemented for the identification of newly diagnosed cancer cases. Cancer incidence was related to dietary habits and biochemical markers of food consumption and individual susceptibility in order to test the role of diet-related exposure in the etiology of cancer and its interaction with other environmental or genetic determinants. The comparability of information in a prospective study design is much higher than in other studies. The availability of such a large biological bank linked to individual data on dietary and life-style exposures also provides the unique opportunity of evaluating the role of selected genotypes involved in the metabolism of chemical compounds and DNA repair, potentially related to the risk of cancer, in residents of geographic areas of Italy characterized by specific cancer risk and different dietary patterns. Baseline characteristics of participants are briefly described.