We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.

The 3 seismic sources S1, S2 and S3 detected from MDI dopplergrams using the time-distance diagram technique are presented with the locations, areas and vertical and horizontal velocities of the visible wave displacements. Within the datacube of 120 Mm the horizontal velocities and the wave propagation times slightly vary from source to source. The momenta and start times measured from the TD diagrams in the sources S1-S3 are compared with those delivered to the photosphere by different kinds of high energy particles with the parameters deduced from hard X-ray and γ-ray emission as well as by the hydrodynamic shocks caused by these particles. The energetic protons (power laws combined with quasi-thermal ones, or jets) are shown to deliver momentum high enough and to form the hydrodynamic shocks deeply in a flaring atmosphere that allows them to be delivered to the photosphere through much shorter distances and times. Then the seismic waves observed in the sources S2 and S3 can be explained by the momenta produced by hydrodynamic shocks which are caused by mixed proton beams and jets occurring nearly simultaneously with the third burst of hard X-ray (HXR) and γ-ray emission in the loops with footpoints in the locations of these sources. The seismic wave in the source S1, delayed by 4 and 2 minutes from the first and second HXR bursts, respectively, is likely to be associated with a hydrodynamic shock occurring in this loop from precipitation of a very powerful and hard electron beam with higher energy cutoff mixed with quasithermal protons generated by either of these 2 bursts.

Various methods of helioseismology are used to study the subsurface properties of the sunspot in NOAA Active Region 9787. This sunspot was chosen because it is axisymmetric, shows little evolution during 20-28 January 2002, and was observed continuously by the MDI/SOHO instrument. AR 9787 is visible on helioseismic maps of the farside of the Sun from 15 January, i.e. days before it crossed the East limb.Oscillations have reduced amplitudes in the sunspot at all frequencies, whereas a region of enhanced acoustic power above 5.5 mHz (above the quiet-Sun acoustic cutoff) is seen outside the sunspot and the plage region. This enhanced acoustic power has been suggested to be caused by the conversion of acoustic waves into magneto-acoustic waves that are refracted back into the interior and re-emerge as acoustic waves in the quiet Sun. Observations show that the sunspot absorbs a significant fraction of the incoming p and f modes around 3 mHz. A numerical simulation of MHD wave propagation through a simple model of AR 9787 confirmed that wave absorption is likely to be due to the partial conversion of incoming waves into magneto-acoustic waves that propagate down the sunspot. Wave travel times and mode frequencies are affected by the sunspot. In most cases, wave packets that propagate through the sunspot have reduced travel times. At short travel distances, however, the sign of the travel-time shifts appears to depend sensitively on how the data are processed and, in particular, on filtering in frequency-wavenumber space. We carry out two linear inversions for wave speed: one using travel-times and phase-speed filters and the other one using mode frequencies from ring analysis. These two inversions give subsurface wave-speed profiles with opposite signs and different amplitudes.The travel-time measurements also imply different subsurface flow patterns in the surface layer depending on the filtering procedure that is used. Current sensitivity kernels are unable to reconcile these measurements, perhaps because they rely on imperfect models of the power spectrum of solar oscillations. We present a linear inversion for flows of ridge-filtered travel times. This inversion shows a horizontal outflow in the upper 4 Mm that is consistent with the moat flow deduced from the surface motion of moving magnetic features.From this study of AR 9787, we conclude that we are currently unable to provide a unified description of the subsurface structure and dynamics of the sunspot.

While sunspots are easily observed at the solar surface, determining their subsurface structure is not trivial. There are two main hypotheses for the subsurface structure of sunspots: the monolithic model and the cluster model. Local helioseismology is the only means by which we can investigate subphotospheric structure. However, as current linear inversion techniques do not yet allow helioseismology to probe the internal structure with sufficient confidence to distinguish between the monolith and cluster models, the development of physically realistic sunspot models are a priority for helioseismologists. This is because they are not only important indicators of the variety of physical effects that may influence helioseismic inferences in active regions, but they also enable detailed assessments of the validity of helioseismic interpretations through numerical forward modeling. In this article, we provide a critical review of the existing sunspot models and an overview of numerical methods employed to model wave propagation through model sunspots. We then carry out a helioseismic analysis of the sunspot in Active Region 9787 and address the serious inconsistencies uncovered by Gizon et al. (2009aGizon et al. ( , 2009b. We find that this sunspot is most probably associated with a shallow, positive wave-speed perturbation (unlike the traditional two-layer model) and that travel-time measurements are consistent with a horizontal outflow in the surrounding moat.