Objective
To evaluate the utility of subchondral bone texture from a baseline x-ray image for predicting 3-year knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression.
Methods
A total of 138 participants in the Prediction of Osteoarthritis Progression (POP) study were evaluated at baseline and 3 years. Fixed-flexion knee radiographs of the 248 non-replaced knees underwent fractal analysis of the medial subchondral tibial plateau using a commercially available software tool. OA progression was defined as a 1-grade change in joint space narrowing (JSN) or osteophyte based on a standardized knee atlas. Statistical analysis of fractal signatures was performed using a new method based on modeling the overall shape of fractal dimension versus radius curves.
Results
Baseline fractal signature of the medial tibial plateau was predictive of medial knee JSN progression (area under the curve [AUC] of Receiver Operating Characteristic plot of 0.75), but not progression based on osteophyte or progression of the lateral compartment. The traditional covariates (age, gender, body mass index, knee pain), general bone mineral content, and baseline joint space width fared little better than random variables for predicting OA progression (AUC 0.52–0.58). The maximal predictive model combined baseline fractal signature, knee alignment, traditional covariates, and bone mineral content (AUC 0.79).
Conclusions
We identified a prognostic marker of OA that is readily extracted from a plain radiograph by fractal signature analysis. The global shape approach to analyzing these data is a potentially efficient means of identifying individuals at risk of knee OA progression that needs to be validated in a second cohort.
Objective
To evaluate subchondral bone trabecular integrity (BTI) from a radiograph as a predictor of knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression.
Methods
Longitudinal (baseline, 12- and 24-month) knee radiographs were available from 60 female subjects with knee OA. OA progression was defined by 12- and 24-month change in radiographic medial compartment minimal joint space width (JSW) and medial joint space area (JSA), and medial tibial and femoral cartilage volume from magnetic resonance imaging. Bone Trabecular Integrity (BTI) of the medial tibial plateau was analyzed by fractal signature analysis with a commercially available software. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves of BTI were used to predict 5% change in OA progression parameters.
Results
Individual terms (linear and quadratic) of baseline BTI of vertical trabeculae predicted knee OA progression based on 12- and 24-month change in JSA (p<0.01 for 24 months), 24-month change in tibial (p<0.05) but not femoral cartilage volume, and 24-month change in JSW (p=0.05). ROC utilizing both terms of baseline BTI predicted 5% change in the OA progression parameters over 24 months with high accuracy as reflected by the area under the curve (AUC) measures: JSW 81%, JSA 85%, tibial 75% and femoral 85% cartilage volume. Change in BTI was also significantly associated (p<0.05) with concurrent change in JSA over 12 and 24 months and change in tibial cartilage volume over 24 months.
Conclusions
BTI predicts structural OA progression as determined by radiographic and MRI outcomes. BTI may therefore be worthy of study as an outcome measure for OA studies and clinical trials.
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