The micellization of the saponin, Acaciaside, and its mixed-micelle formation with Triton X-100 were studied by fluorimetric and microcalorimetric methods. The energetics of the micellization process and the polarity of the mixed micelles formed were evaluated. The nonideality of the mixed micelles (the deviation from Clint's equation) and the molecular interactions of Acaciaside with Triton X-100 in the mixed micelles were quantified by Rubingh's formalism in light of regular solution theory. The Acaciaside was found to protect both Triton X-100 and Igepal from clouding. Using the clouding point as the solubility limit of the surfactant (here Triton X-100 and Igepal) the energetics of the process have also been evaluated. Similar to hydrophobic solutes, the entropies of solution of both Triton X-100 and Igepal are significantly negative.
Background
As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious and potentially more deadly viral variants, decisions on timing and extent of relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made.
Methods
An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed to compare the impact of various vaccination and NPI strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. OpenCOVID uses the Oxford Containment Health Index (OCHI) to quantify the stringency of NPIs.
Results
Even if NPIs in place in March 2021 were to be maintained and the vaccine campaign rollout rapidly scaled-up, a ‘third wave’ was predicted. However, we find a cautious phased relaxation can substantially reduce population-level morbidity and mortality. We find that faster vaccination campaign can offset the size of such a wave, allowing more flexibility for NPI to be relaxed sooner. Model outcomes were most sensitive to the level of infectiousness of variants of concern observed in Switzerland.
Conclusion
A rapid vaccination rollout can allow the sooner relaxation of NPIs, however ongoing surveillance of - and swift responses to - emerging viral variants is of utmost importance for epidemic control.
As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious and potentially more deadly viral variants, decisions on timing and extent of relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made. An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed to compare the impact of various vaccination and NPI strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. We estimate that any relaxation of NPIs in March 2021 will lead to increasing cases, hospitalisations, and deaths resulting in a "third wave" in spring and into summer 2021. However, we find a cautious phased relaxation can substantially reduce population-level morbidity and mortality. We find that faster vaccination campaign can offset the size of such a wave, allowing more flexibility for NPI to be relaxed sooner. Our sensitivity analysis revealed that model results are particularly sensitive to the infectiousness of variant B.1.1.7.
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