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Justification of seismic triggering of large prehistoric rockslides that originated on the slopes of anticlinal ridges armoured by thick carbonate units has been performed by examples of the gigantic Seimareh rockslide in Zagros (Iran) and two structurally similar, though much smaller rockslides in Dagestan (Greater Caucasus, Russia). Such structural and geomorphic conditions allow precise reconstruction of the pre-slide topography of the studied sites that increases reliability of their back analysis significantly. Linear dimensions of landslides are much larger than thickness of the siding block that makes the simplified 2D numerical modelling of these slopes quite realistic. The pseudostatic analysis performed at the first step confirmed that the study slopes could not fail without strong earthquakes. However, further dynamic analysis performed by use of the Newmark method allowed estimating characteristics of strong motions that could result in formation of rockslides that had converted in long runout rock avalanches. Possible uncertainties and open problems are discussed as well.
The article raises a problem of dangerous geodynamic processes taking place in the eastern part of Orenburg region. The analysis of subsoil geodynamic state of Orenburg region is completed. Effective monitoring of geodynamic processes in the eastern part of Orenburg region using a seismological network is proposed and justified. Seismic events with a magnitude of ML> 2.0 are confidently recorded on this territory as well as subsidence of land surface reaching 50 cm per year. According to long-term monitoring of seismic events in the eastern part of the Orenburg region, a repetition schedule of seismic events was constructed. It allowed us to make a conclusion of the reason for increased geodynamic activity in this region is high technogenic load on geological environment. To study abnormally high seismic activity in the East Orenburg region, it is necessary to create a seismological network of 3-4 seismic stations in the territory of seismic activity in the Gaysky and Novooorsky districts near the cities of Orsk and Gai, Iriklinskaya State District Power Station and Iriklinskoye Reservoir. This will help to identify seismic activity causes and sources, level of danger, help to develop measures for reducing seismicity and increase the security of specific objects of society, industry and energy.
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