[1] Water managers are turning increasingly to market solutions to meet new environmental demands for water in fully allocated systems. This paper presents a threestage probabilistic optimization model that identifies least cost strategies for staged seasonal water purchases for an environmental water acquisition program given hydrologic, operational, and biological uncertainties. Multistage linear programming is used to minimize the expected cost of long-term, spot, and option water purchases used to meet uncertain environmental demands. Results prescribe the location, timing, and type of optimal water purchases and illustrate how least cost strategies change as information becomes available during the year. Results also provide sensitivity analysis, including shadow values that estimate the expected cost of additional dedicated environmental water. The model's application to California's Environmental Water Account is presented with a discussion of its utility for planning and policy purposes. Model limitations and sensitivity analysis are discussed, as are operational and research recommendations.
Computer model results are becoming more prominent in water policy deliberations in California. CalSim II is the most prominent water management model in California, and has become central to a variety of water management and policy issues and controversies. This paper reports on the results of an extensive set of loosely-structured interviews with members of California's technical and policy-oriented water management community regarding the use and development of CalSim II in California. The interviewers reflect on the thoughts of interviewees and how such interview activities can further policyeffective modeling and technical activities for water management. CalSim II is a complex model of a complex part of California's changing multi-purpose water system. As such, analytical controversies and misunderstandings are inevitable. Ideally, a model and its associated data would perform an additional service as a forum to resolve technical controversies and continually improve quantitative understanding of the system. While CalSim II is generally seen as a significant improvement over previous models, a wide variety of ideas are suggested for improvements. KEYWORDSCalSim II, water resources planning, water management, regional water planning, model development, Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay-Delta SUGGESTED CITATION
Chemically generated libraries of small, non-oligomeric compounds are being widely embraced by researchers in both industry and academia. There has been a steady development of new chemistries and equipment applied to library generation so it is now possible to synthesize almost any desired class of compound. However, there are still important issues to consider that range from what specific types of compounds should be made to concerns such as sample resynthesis, structural confirmation of the hit identified, and how to best integrate this technology into a pharmaceutical drug discovery operation. This paper illustrates our approach to new lead discovery (individual, diverse, drug-like molecules of known structural identity using a simple, spatially addressable parallel synthesis approach to prepare Multiple Diverse as well as Universal Libraries) and describes some representative examples of chemistries we had developed within these approaches (preparation of bis-benzamide phenols, thiophenes, pyrrolidines, and highly substituted biphenyls). Finally, the manuscript concludes by addressing some the present concerns that still must be considered in this field.
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