River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the ''uncertain'' morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05-0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken Natural Hazards (2005) 36: 81-102 Ó Springer 2005into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.
Abstract. Vegetated foreshores in front of existing dikes can contribute to the overall reduction of wave loads on the dike. In order to test this concept in large shallow lakes a field pilot was constructed along the Houtribdijk in Lake Markermeer (the Netherlands) in 2014 to gain experience with construction, stability, maintenance and governance aspects. A large scale monitoring programme was set up to follow the hydrodynamic forcing, morphological changes and vegetation development on the pilot. The pilot is located on an exposed south-westerly direction, and experiences substantial wave impact. As a result the desired vegetation on the land-water interface has not been able to establish, but a rather dynamic sandy beach is currently the main feature along the waterline of the site. Higher up the slope planted reeds, and a mixture of willows has well established itself in the first growing season. The exposed position of the location makes that hardly any natural pioneer vegetation has settled, only in small sheltered areas some annuals were able to germinate and maintain themselves.
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