A potential glacial lake outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) threatens Huaraz, a city of 120,000 people. In 1941, an outburst flood destroyed one-third of the city and caused at least 1800 fatalities. Since preindustrial times, Lake Palcacocha has expanded due to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier. Here we present the first detailed study evaluating the anthropogenic contribution to the glacier's retreat and glacial lake outburst flood hazard. We find that the magnitude of human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105% (5-95% confidence interval) of the observed 1 °C warming since 1880 in this region. Using observations and numerical models of the mass balance and glacier response, we conclude that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the retreat of Palcaraju glacier to the present day cannot be explained by natural variability alone, and that the retreat by 1941 represented an early impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Our central estimate is that
Because tick and tick-borne disease distributions are so tightly linked to the environment, a robust conceptual background is necessary to build useful empirical and process-based models and to interpret results coherently with pathogen, vector and host ecology. This is especially pressing when considering that tick-borne pathogen circulation is a complex ecological system that has been studied in a great diversity of ways, producing results that may appear challenging to synthesise. We propose that a resource-based habitat concept can provide helpful leads to collect data, elaborate models and interpret and assemble upcoming and existing results. Two elements in the existing knowledge and its gaps, and in the current ecological context encourage us to explore such a conceptual framework. First, it is rare in the current practice to focus on the ecology of the pathogen, whereas this may be a key element in understanding the role of biodiversity in pathogen circulation. Second, the role of non-classical tick habitats (e.g. forest encroached areas and meadows) is getting more and more often highlighted, indicating that summarising tick habitat, or pathogen habitat, by a single vegetation class is not suitable. We revisit two simulation models (a cellular automata and an agent-based model) that focus on infected ticks and on tick population dynamics. In these models, the potential of a resource-based habitat concept can be highlighted. We then discuss how to implement this concept for studying the ecology of tickborne pathogens.
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