Ecosystem restoration may require returning threatened populations of ecologically pivotal species to near their former abundances, but it is often difficult to estimate historic population size of species that have been heavily exploited. Eastern Pacific gray whales play a key ecological role in their Arctic feeding grounds and are widely thought to have returned to their prewhaling abundance. Recent mortality spikes might signal that the population has reached long-term carrying capacity, but an alternative is that this decline was due to shifting climatic conditions on Arctic feeding grounds. We used a genetic approach to estimate prewhaling abundance of gray whales and report DNA variability at 10 loci that is typical of a population of Ϸ76,000 -118,000 individuals, approximately three to five times more numerous than today's average census size of 22,000. Coalescent simulations indicate these estimates may include the entire Pacific metapopulation, suggesting that our average measurement of Ϸ96,000 individuals was probably distributed between the eastern and currently endangered western Pacific populations. These levels of genetic variation suggest the eastern population is at most at 28 -56% of its historical abundance and should be considered depleted. If used to inform management, this would halve acceptable human-caused mortality for this population from 417 to 208 per year. Potentially profound ecosystem impacts may have resulted from a decline from 96,000 gray whales to the current population. At previous levels, gray whales may have seasonally resuspended 700 million cubic meters of sediment, as much as 12 Yukon Rivers, and provided food to a million sea birds.cetacean ͉ coalescence ͉ effective population size ͉ genetic diversity ͉ historic abundance

Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size.

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In a recent paper, "Environmental DNA: What's behind the term? Clarifying the terminology and recommendations for its future use in biomonitoring," Pawlowski et al. argue that the term eDNA should be used to refer to the pool of DNA isolated from environmental samples, as opposed to only extra-organismal DNA from macro-organisms. We agree with this view. However, we are concerned that their proposed two-level terminology specifying sampling environment and targeted taxa is overly simplistic and might hinder rather than improve clear communication about environmental DNA and its use in biomonitoring. This terminology is based on categories that are often difficult to assign and uninformative, and it overlooks a fundamental distinction within eDNA: the type of DNA (organismal or extra-organismal) from which ecological interpretations are derived.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

The rapidly evolving mitochondrial control region remains an important source of information on phylogeography and demographic history for cetaceans and other vertebrates, despite great uncertainty in the rate of nucleotide substitution across both nucleotide positions and lineages. Patterns of variation in linked markers with slower rates of evolution can potentially be used to calibrate the rate of nucleotide substitution in the control region and to better understand the interplay of evolutionary and demographic forces across the mitochondrial genome above and below the species level. We have examined patterns of diversity within and between three baleen whale species (gray, humpback, and Antarctic minke whales) in order to determine how patterns of molecular evolution differ between cytochrome b and the control region. Our results show that cytochrome b is less variable than expected given the diversity in the control region for gray and humpback whales, even after functional differences are taken into account, but more variable than expected for minke whales. Differences in the frequency distributions of polymorphic sites and in best-fit models of nucleotide substitution indicate that these patterns may be the result of hypervariability in the control region in gray and humpback whales but, in minke whales, may result from a large, stable or expanding population size coupled with saturation at the control region. Using paired cytochrome b and control region data across individuals, we show that the average rate of nucleotide substitution in the control region may be on average 2.6 times higher than phylogenetically derived estimates in cetaceans. These results highlight the complexity of making inferences from control region data alone and suggest that applying simple rules of DNA sequence analyses across species may be difficult.

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Global models project impending climate changes that could significantly alter plant species composition in ecosystems. Climate manipulation experiments provide an opportunity to investigate such effects. Here we describe and apply a method for extracting the age‐detrended growth rate of sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) and show that experimental ecosystem warming enhances the growth rate of this shrub. Snowmelt date, not soil temperature or moisture, is demonstrated to be the dominant climate variable controlling the observed effect. Our findings suggest that global climate change will result in increased growth and range expansion of sagebrush near northern or high‐elevation range boundaries in the Western United States.