Wildfires in boreal forests release large quantities of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, exacerbating climate change. Here, we characterize the magnitude of recent and projected gross and net boreal North American wildfire carbon dioxide emissions, evaluate fire management as an emissions reduction strategy, and quantify the associated costs. Our results show that wildfires in boreal North America could, by mid-century, contribute to a cumulative net source of nearly 12 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, about 3% of remaining global carbon dioxide emissions associated with keeping temperatures within the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. With observations from Alaska, we show that current fire management practices limit the burned area. Further, the costs of avoiding carbon dioxide emissions by means of increasing investment in fire management are comparable to or lower than those of other mitigation strategies. Together, our findings highlight the climate risk that boreal wildfires pose and point to fire management as a cost-effective way to limit emissions.
Increasing fire severity and frequency may stress ecosystems also impacted by climate change. We studied the physical limitations to regeneration after fire in an ecosystem that already experiences high summer temperatures and drought and is therefore a possible analog of the future. We compared soil respiration as an indicator of microbial activity in burned and unburned forest soils in central Texas, where two recent wildfires have occurred (2011 and 2015). We also measured soil temperature, water content, soil water δ 18 O and δD values, total C, N, pH, and δ 13 C values of total organic matter. Burned soils had lower total C and N than unburned soils; however, lab-based respiration measurements, which controlled for temperature and water content, suggest that microbial activity in burned and unburned soils are similar. Conversely, field measurements show that during hot and dry months respiration rates in burned soils were much lower than they were in unburned soils due to differences in soil temperature and water content. Soil temperature at 5 cm reached 60°C in burned soils due to the removal of canopy cover, the removal of organic matter insulation, and the deposition of black ash on the soil surface. Higher temperatures increased evaporation as indicated by significantly lower deuterium excess of water in soils burned in 2015 than unburned soils. If the disturbance of vegetation by fire is substantial enough, the resulting perturbations to soils persist for years, most importantly increased heat absorption which results in lower water contents and ultimately reduced microbial activity.
Abstract. Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadian boreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change, which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the region from a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically important to track the spatiotemporal changes in burned area and fire carbon emissions over time. Here we developed a new burned area detection algorithm between 2001–2019 across Alaska and Canada at 500 meters (m) resolution that utilizes finer-scale 30 m Landsat imagery to account for land cover unsuitable for burning. This method strictly balances omission and commission errors at 500 m to derive accurate landscape- and regional-scale burned area estimates. Using this new burned area product, we developed statistical models to predict burn depth and carbon combustion for the same period within the NASA Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) core and extended domain. Statistical models were constrained using a database of field observations across the domain and were related to a variety of response variables including remotely-sensed indicators of fire severity, fire weather indices, local climate, soils, and topographic indicators. The burn depth and aboveground combustion models performed best, with poorer performance for belowground combustion. We estimate 2.37 million hectares (Mha) burned annually between 2001–2019 over the ABoVE domain (2.87 Mha across all of Alaska and Canada), emitting 79.3 +/- 27.96 (+/- 1 standard deviation) Teragrams of carbon (C) per year, with a mean combustion rate of 3.13 +/- 1.17 kilograms C m-2. Mean combustion and burn depth displayed a general gradient of higher severity in the northwestern portion of the domain to lower severity in the south and east. We also found larger fire years and later season burning were generally associated with greater mean combustion. Our estimates are generally consistent with previous efforts to quantify burned area, fire carbon emissions, and their drivers in regions within boreal North America; however, we generally estimate higher burned area and carbon emissions due to our use of Landsat imagery, greater availability of field observations, and improvements in modeling. The burned area and combustion data sets described here (the ABoVE Fire Emissions Database, or ABoVE-FED) can be used for local to continental-scale applications of boreal fire science.
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