Background Ahmedabad implemented South Asia's first heat action plan (HAP) after a 2010 heatwave. This study evaluates the HAP's impact on all-cause mortality in 2014–2015 relative to a 2007–2010 baseline. Methods We analyzed daily maximum temperature (Tmax)-mortality relationships before and after HAP. We estimated rate ratios (RRs) for daily mortality using distributed lag nonlinear models and mortality incidence rates (IRs) for HAP warning days, comparing pre- and post-HAP periods, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs). We estimated the number of deaths avoided after HAP implementation using pre- and post-HAP IRs. Results The maximum pre-HAP RR was 2.34 (95%CI 1.98–2.76) at 47°C (lag 0), and the maximum post-HAP RR was 1.25 (1.02–1.53) estimated at 47°C (lag 0). Post-to-pre-HAP nonlagged mortality IRR for Tmax over 40°C was 0.95 (0.73–1.22) and 0.73 (0.29–1.81) for Tmax over 45°C. An estimated 1,190 (95%CI 162–2,218) average annualized deaths were avoided in the post-HAP period. Conclusion Extreme heat and HAP warnings after implementation were associated with decreased summertime all-cause mortality rates, with largest declines at highest temperatures. Ahmedabad's plan can serve as a guide for other cities attempting to increase resilience to extreme heat.
ABSTRACT:A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado (F0 on the Fujita-Pearson scale) close to Ludhiana airport (Punjab), northwest region of India (30.80°N, 76.05°E) on 15 August 2007. Relatively less damage occurred as it passed through the open fields, but there were minor injuries to some cattle and damage to property. In this paper, analysis of meteorological conditions that led to the tornado on 15 August 2007 at 1100 UTC in Ludhiana has been made. An attempt is also made to simulate this rare event using the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system with a spatial resolution of 3 km for a period of 24 h, starting at 0000 UTC of 15 August 2007. The results are encouraging in terms of timing and location of occurrence of the event. The atmospheric settings as indicated by surface, upper air and radar echo studies are favourable for severe thunderstorm activity over Ludhiana. The simulated instability indices (lifted index, total totals index and CAPE) over Ludhiana during the tornado hour, which act as indicators of severe convective activity, have been found to be in good agreement with the actual analysis. The model-simulated meteorological parameters, relative humidity, mean sea level pressure, rainfall, moisture convergence, pressure vertical velocity and surface wind speed, are favourable for tornado occurrence at 1100 UTC over Ludhiana, and agree reasonably well with the observations.
This study focuses on the development of a storm index by integrating Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from current operational Indian Satellites INSAT3D/3DR and reflectivity from space borne Precipitation Radar (PR) onboard Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) for near real‐time monitoring of thunderstorms. Using a reflectivity threshold for the detection of thunderstorms, an OLR threshold was identified from the relationship between OLR and reflectivity. A storm index has been defined as the OLR threshold divided by actual OLR values. The derived index can be very helpful for operational forecasts of intense and widespread thunderstorms over India and its neighborhood.
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