Groundnut is India's most important oil seed crop, and Rajasthan is the country's second-largest producer (2019-20). The current research looks at groundnut output, area, and productivity in Rajasthan. Secondary data was gathered from INDIASTAT and the Rajasthan state department of agriculture, among other places. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences is used to collect and analyse data (SPSS). From 1990-91 to 2019-20, the average groundnut area, production, and productivity were 352.12 thousand hectors, 513.40 thousand MT, and 1351 kg/ha, respectively. The compound growth rates of groundnut area, production, and productivity were found to be positive and significant (R = 0.652**, 0.940**, and 0.603**, respectively) in an upward trend with CAGRs of 3.2, 6.4, and 2.8 per cent.
This paper presents an analysis of the area, production and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan over the last thirty years and a forecast of these variables using the auto regressing integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Descriptive statistics show that there was a large fluctuation in the lowest and maximum values of area, production, and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan over the period of last thirty years. The ARIMA model was used to forecast the area, production, and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan. The parameter estimates of the ARIMA model were used to determine the model fit statistics, including the R-squared value, which indicates how well the model fits the data. The Ljung-Box Q Statistics and the corresponding Sig. indicate that there is no significant autocorrelation in the residuals of the model. Finally, forecasts for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 are presented, along with their corresponding upper and lower confidence limits. The results indicate that there is a considerable upward trend in area, production, and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan over the last thirty years. The ARIMA model was found to be successful in forecasting the area, production, and productivity of ground. The findings of this paper can help in the formulation of better policies for groundnut production in Rajasthan.
This paper studies the forecasting of arrival and price of groundnut at the APMC in Rajasthan. ARIMA models was used to model the time series data of arrival and price of groundnut at APMC from 2005 to 2021. Groundnut arrival was at its highest in the months of November, December, and January of the 2018–19 growing season, with 16.3%, 32.3%, and 33.6%, respectively. In the year 2019-20, the highest arrival of groundnuts was seen in October, November, and December with 28.08%, 29.79%, and 28.51% respectively. The best fitting model for the arrival of groundnut is ARIMA (1, 1, 1), and for price is ARIMA (2, 1, 1) with R-squared values of 0.931 and 0.852 respectively. The results indicate that the arrival of groundnut at APMC will increase from 1015.48 thousand metric tonnes in 2022 to 1180.68 thousand metric tonnes in 2026, while the price of groundnut will increase from Rs 5261.08/qtl in 2022 to Rs 6057.07/qtl in 2026. The results study provides valuable insights into the seasonal pattern of groundnut arrivals at APMCs and the forecasts can be used to make decisions about future supply and demand of the product to stakeholders and helps them plan for the future.
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