Rainfall-run-off modelling could estimate the surface water discharges according to the rainfall data record. The incremental rainfall derives the reliable rainfall in many probabilities, and then it becomes reliable discharges after rainfall-run-off modelling processes. The standard models to derive rainfall to discharges are F.J. Mock and NRECA. Both models use rainfall, meteorology, and climatology data as the primary information. Location of this research was in the Ciujung watershed, Banten province. The objective of this research was estimating the potential surface water in Ciujung watershed. Rainfall data recording from January 1997 until December 2018 will derive the reliable rainfall of 50%, 70%, 80%, 90% and 99% probability. The meteorology and climatology information were following the days of rainfall, sunshine ratio, wind velocity, air temperature, and relative humidity. The results give information about the potential of reliable discharges in the Ciujung watershed. As the agricultural planning and developing purpose, the 80% reliable discharges Q80 becomes the fundamental consideration. It forecasts maximum discharges in a range of 60 m3/s to 80 m3/s and the minimum discharges in the range of 0.1 m3/s to 0.6 m3/s. These values become the threshold in agricultural planning and development. The advance analysis is quantifying the human needs of water, and the remaining value can be as the potential discharges for agricultural purpose. Further research will accommodate these analyses.
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