Central bank independence (CBI) and its link to inflation have become a part of conventional wisdom. However, the literature shows that there is a lack of a stable general pattern for the relation between CBI and inflation, even for relatively homogenous groups of countries. In this study, we use two indexes for CBI proposed in the literature. For the panel of 51 countries (24 advanced and 27 nonadvanced economies), we estimate two regression models—one with inflation as a dependent variable and another with inflation gap in this role. We use two estimation methods: the panel fixed effects model with serial autocorrelation in the error term and the Arellano‐Bond difference generalized method of moments estimator. In addition, we use disaggregated indices to check what aspects of independence are of highest importance. Our results suggest that CBI has a negative significant impact on inflation mostly by results for nonadvanced economies and that this relationship did not change during the recent crisis.
The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of banking concentration on firm leverage in 21 major emerging countries from different geographical regions, controlling for firm determinant and macroeconomic determinant of firm leverage. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on a relatively large sample of 5,779 enterprises with total 48,280 numbers of observations over the period from 2006 to 2013 and the regression model is performed by applying two-step system general method of moment estimator methodology. Findings This study finds a positive and significant relationship between banking concentration and firm leverage. Therefore, the overall results follow the information-based theory which indicates lower firms financing obstacles as banks are more concentrated. Research limitations/implications Bank-level data of all the countries to measure banking concentration is until 2013, which restrict the empirical analysis until 2013. Also, the study conducts the analysis. Practical implications The study enables policymakers, society, and academics to have better understanding on the beneficial effects of alternative banking market structure on firms'access to credit and therefore, in determining the level of firm leverage in emerging countries. Originality/value The study represents one of the limited available empirical researches to examine the beneficial effect of alternative banking market structures of firm leverage in emerging countries.
This paper compares option pricing models, based on Black model notion (Black, 1976), especially focusing on the volatility models implied in the process of pricing. We calculated the Black model with historical (BHV), implied (BIV) and several different types of realized (BRV) volatility (additionally searching for the optimal interval Δ, and parameter n -the memory of the process). Our main intention was to find the best model, i.e. which predicts the actual market price with minimum error. We focused on the HF data and bidask quotes (instead of transactional data) in order to omit the problem of non-synchronous trading and additionally to increase the significance of our research through numerous observations. After calculation of several error statistics (RMSE, HMAE and HRMSE) and additionally the percent of price overpredictions, the results confirmed our initial intuition that that BIV is the best model, BHV being the second best, and BRV -the least efficient of them. The division of our database into different classes of moneyness ratio and TTM enabled us to observe the distinct differences between compared pricing models. Additionally, focusing on the same pricing model with different volatility processes results in the conclusion that point-estimate, not averaged process of RV is the main reason of high errors and instability of valuation in high volatility environment. Finally, we have been able to detect "spurious outliers" and explain their effect and the reason for them owing to the multi-dimensional comparison of the pricing error statistics.
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