The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

The ocean is a soup of its resident species' genetic material, cast off in the forms of metabolic waste, shed skin cells, or damaged tissue. Sampling this environmental DNA (eDNA) is a potentially powerful means of assessing whole biological communities, a significant advance over the manual methods of environmental sampling that have historically dominated marine ecology and related fields. Here, we estimate the vertebrate fauna in a 4.5-million-liter mesocosm aquarium tank at the Monterey Bay Aquarium of known species composition by sequencing the eDNA from its constituent seawater. We find that it is generally possible to detect mitochondrial DNA of bony fishes sufficient to identify organisms to taxonomic family- or genus-level using a 106 bp fragment of the 12S ribosomal gene. Within bony fishes, we observe a low false-negative detection rate, although we did not detect the cartilaginous fishes or sea turtles present with this fragment. We find that the rank abundance of recovered eDNA sequences correlates with the abundance of corresponding species' biomass in the mesocosm, but the data in hand do not allow us to develop a quantitative relationship between biomass and eDNA abundance. Finally, we find a low false-positive rate for detection of exogenous eDNA, and we were able to diagnose non-native species' tissue in the food used to maintain the mesocosm, underscoring the sensitivity of eDNA as a technique for community-level ecological surveys. We conclude that eDNA has substantial potential to become a core tool for environmental monitoring, but that a variety of challenges remain before reliable quantitative assessments of ecological communities in the field become possible.

Preserving biodiversity is a global challenge requiring data on species’ distribution and abundance over large geographic and temporal scales. However, traditional methods to survey mobile species’ distribution and abundance in marine environments are often inefficient, environmentally destructive, or resource‐intensive. Metabarcoding of environmental DNA (eDNA) offers a new means to assess biodiversity and on much larger scales, but adoption of this approach for surveying whole animal communities in large, dynamic aquatic systems has been slowed by significant unknowns surrounding error rates of detection and relevant spatial resolution of eDNA surveys. Here, we report the results of a 2.5 km eDNA transect surveying the vertebrate fauna present along a gradation of diverse marine habitats associated with a kelp forest ecosystem. Using PCR primers that target the mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene of marine fishes and mammals, we generated eDNA sequence data and compared it to simultaneous visual dive surveys. We find spatial concordance between individual species’ eDNA and visual survey trends, and that eDNA is able to distinguish vertebrate community assemblages from habitats separated by as little as ~60 m. eDNA reliably detected vertebrates with low false‐negative error rates (1/12 taxa) when compared to the surveys, and revealed cryptic species known to occupy the habitats but overlooked by visual methods. This study also presents an explicit accounting of false negatives and positives in metabarcoding data, which illustrate the influence of gene marker selection, replication, contamination, biases impacting eDNA count data and ecology of target species on eDNA detection rates in an open ecosystem.

Comparing many species' population genetic patterns across the same seascape can identify species with different levels of structure, and suggest hypotheses about the processes that cause such variation for species in the same ecosystem. This comparative approach helps focus on geographic barriers and selective or demographic processes that define genetic connectivity on an ecosystem scale, the understanding of which is particularly important for large-scale management efforts. Moreover, a multispecies dataset has great statistical advantages over single-species studies, lending explanatory power in an effort to uncover the mechanisms driving population structure. Here, we analyze a 50-species dataset of Pacific nearshore invertebrates with the aim of discovering the most influential structuring factors along the Pacific coast of North America. We collected cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) mtDNA data from populations of 34 species of marine invertebrates sampled coarsely at four coastal locations in California, Oregon, and Alaska, and added published data from 16 additional species. All nine species with non-pelagic development have strong genetic structure. For the 41 species with pelagic development, 13 show significant genetic differentiation, nine of which show striking FST levels of 0.1–0.6. Finer scale geographic investigations show unexpected regional patterns of genetic change near Cape Mendocino in northern California for five of the six species tested. The region between Oregon and Alaska is a second focus of intraspecific genetic change, showing differentiation in half the species tested. Across regions, strong genetic subdivision occurs more often than expected in mid-to-high intertidal species, a result that may reflect reduced gene flow due to natural selection along coastal environmental gradients. Finally, the results highlight the importance of making primary research accessible to policymakers, as unexpected barriers to marine dispersal break the coast into separate demographic zones that may require their own management plans.

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As environmental DNA (eDNA) studies have grown in popularity for use in ecological applications, it has become clear that their results differ in significant ways from those of traditional, non-PCR-based surveys. In general, eDNA studies that rely on amplicon sequencing may detect hundreds of species present in a sampled environment, but the resulting species composition can be idiosyncratic, reflecting species’ true biomass abundances poorly or not at all. Here, we use a set of simulations to develop a mechanistic understanding of the processes leading to the kinds of results common in mixed-template PCR-based (metabarcoding) studies. In particular, we focus on the effects of PCR cycle number and primer amplification efficiency on the results of diversity metrics in sequencing studies. We then show that proportional indices of amplicon reads capture trends in taxon biomass with high accuracy, particularly where amplification efficiency is high (median correlation up to 0.97). Our results explain much of the observed behavior of PCR-based studies, and lead to recommendations for best practices in the field.

Genetic monitoring can help public agencies implement environmental laws

Given the rapid rise of environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys in ecology and environmental science, it is important to be able to compare the results of these surveys to traditional methods of measuring biodiversity. Here we compare samples from a traditional method (a manual tow-net) to companion eDNA samples sequenced at three different genetic loci. We find only partial taxonomic overlap among the resulting datasets, with each reflecting a portion of the larger suite of taxa present in the sampled nearshore marine environment. In the larger context of eDNA sequencing surveys, our results suggest that primer amplification bias drives much of the taxonomic bias in eDNA detection, and that the baseline probability of detecting any given taxon with a broad-spectrum primer set is likely to be low. Whether catching fish with different nets or using different PCR primer sets, multiple data types can provide complementary views of a common ecosystem. However, it remains difficult to cross-validate eDNA sequencing techniques in the field, either for presence/absence or for abundance, particularly for primer sets that target very wide taxonomic ranges. Finally, our results highlight the breadth of diversity in a single habitat, and although eDNA does capture a richer sample of the community than traditional methods of sampling, a large number of eDNA primer sets focusing on different subsets of the biota would be necessary to survey any ecological community in a reasonably comprehensive way.