This paper reviews the current status of using remote sensing and process-based modeling approaches to assess the contemporary and future circumpolar carbon balance of Arctic tundra, including the exchange of both carbon dioxide and methane with the atmosphere. Analyses based on remote sensing approaches that use a 20-year data record of satellite data indicate that tundra is greening in the Arctic, suggesting an increase in photosynthetic activity and net primary production. Modeling studies generally simulate a small net carbon sink for the distribution of Arctic tundra, a result that is within the uncertainty range of field-based estimates of net carbon exchange. Applications of process-based approaches for scenarios of future climate change generally indicate net carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra as enhanced vegetation production exceeds simulated increases in decomposition. However, methane emissions are likely to increase dramatically, in response to rising soil temperatures, over the next century. Key uncertainties in the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change include uncertainties in future fire regimes and uncertainties relating to changes in the soil environment. These include the response of soil decomposition and respiration to warming and deepening of the soil active layer, uncertainties in precipitation and potential soil drying, and distribution of wetlands. While there are numerous uncertainties in the projections of process-based models, they generally indicate that Arctic tundra will be a small sink for carbon over the next century and that methane emissions will increase considerably, which implies that exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and Arctic tundra ecosystems is likely to contribute to climate warming.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

Abstract. Projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change in Arctic wetlands could dramatically affect ecosystem function. As a consequence, it is important to define controls on evapotranspiration, the major pathway of water loss from these systems. We quantified the multi-year controls on midday Arctic coastal wetland evapotranspiration, measured with the eddy covariance method at two vegetated, drained thaw lake basins near Barrow, Alaska. Variations in near-surface soil moisture and atmospheric vapor pressure deficits were found to have nonlinear effects on midday evapotranspiration rates. Vapor pressure deficits (VPD) near 0.3 kPa appeared to be an important hydrological threshold, allowing latent heat flux to persistently exceed sensible heat flux. Dry (compared to wet) soils increased bulk surface resistance (water-limited). Wet soils favored ground heat flux and therefore limited the energy available to sensible and latent heat flux (energy-limited). Thus, midday evapotranspiration was suppressed from both dry and wet soils but through different mechanisms. We also found that wet soils (ponding excluded) combined with large VPD, resulted in an increased bulk surface resistance and therefore suppressing evapotranspiration below its potential rate (Priestley-Taylor α < 1.26). This was likely caused by the limited ability of mosses to transfer moisture during large atmospheric demands. Ultimately, in addition to net radiation, the various controlling factors on midday evapotranspiration (i.e., near-surface soil moisture, atmospheric vapor pressure, Correspondence to: A. K. Liljedahl (akliljedahl@alaska.edu) and the limited ability of saturated mosses to transfer water during high VPD) resulted in an average evapotranspiration rate of up to 75 % of the potential evapotranspiration rate. These multiple limitations on midday evapotranspiration rates have the potential to moderate interannual variation of total evapotranspiration and reduce excessive water loss in a warmer climate. Combined with the prevailing maritime winds and projected increases in precipitation, these curbing mechanisms will likely prevent extensive future soil drying and hence maintain the presence of coastal wetlands.

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