Landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs) is one of the most serious meteorological disasters in China due to the provided severe wind and heavy rainfall. Tropical cyclone–induced rainfall in China has been proved to decrease in recent decades. However, how landfalling tropical cyclone–induced extreme rainfall (LTCER) has changed across China, as well as the relationship between LTCER and LTCs remains poorly understood. Accordingly, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and long-term changes of LTCER over mainland China during the past 60 years were investigated, by using an Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique to identify LTCER. Mid and high latitudes are exposed to a greater risk of extreme rainfall from northward-moving landfalling tropical cyclones (LTCs). Meanwhile, LTCER tends to increase from 1960 to 2019 across mainland China (characterized by a decrease from 1960 to 1989 and an increase from 1990 to 2019). The LTCER trend exhibits a large spatial difference, with an increase near and to the north of 30°N, but no significant change to the south of 30°N. Moreover, the central latitude of the LTCER zone to the north of 30°N has shifted significantly southwards, while that to the south of 30°N has shifted north. Further analysis revealed that the average latitude of the LTC intensity centers to the north/south of 30°N exhibits the same shift to that of LTCER, indicating that the shift of LTCER has mainly been imposed by the migration of LTCs.
Based on different reanalysis datasets, reconstructions of East Asia landfall tropical cyclones (TCs) were compared with observations. The 20th-century reanalysis version 3 dataset (20CRv3) received the most approval in this assessment. It performed better in terms of annual frequency. The fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis dataset (ERA5) and Japanese 55-year reanalysis dataset (JRA55) are also recommended in this study. Nevertheless, an apparent inconsistency in reconstructed TCs before and after 1980 is visible. Temporally, after the satellite era, the underestimation on TC frequency of the National Centres for Environmental Prediction and National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset (NCAR) and 20-century reanalysis of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA20C) has been greatly improved. The downward trend of landfalling TCs is well captured by ERA5 and ERA20C. Spatially, the underestimation of TC track discrepancy is reduced in the post-satellite era. ERA5 and 20CRv3 showed relatively consistent performance compared to the former reanalysis in pre-and post-satellite time, which might be due to their better TC treatment. Despite the essential need for high resolution, this study stressed the importance of observation and assimilation development for the reanalysis TCs.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.