Major histocompatibility complex-I (MHC-I) molecules play a central role in the immune response to viruses and cancers. They present peptides on the surface of affected cells, for recognition by cytotoxic T cells. Determining which peptides are presented, and in what proportion, has profound implications for developing effective, medical treatments. However, our ability to predict peptide presentation levels is currently limited. Existing prediction algorithms focus primarily on the binding affinity of peptides to MHC-I, and do not predict the relative abundance of individual peptides on the surface of antigen-presenting cells in situ which is a critical parameter for determining the strength and specificity of the ensuing immune response. Here, we develop and experimentally verify a mechanistic model for predicting cell-surface presentation of competing peptides. Our approach explicitly models key steps in the processing of intracellular peptides, incorporating both peptide binding affinity and intracellular peptide abundance. We use the resulting model to predict how the peptide repertoire is modified by interferon-γ, an immune modulator well known to enhance expression of antigen processing and presentation proteins.

The statistical theory of polymers tethered around the inner surface of a cylindrical channel has traditionally employed the assumption that the equilibrium density of the polymers is independent of the azimuthal coordinate. However, simulations have shown that this rotational symmetry can be broken when there are attractive interactions between the polymers. We investigate the phases that emerge in these circumstances, and we quantify the effect of the symmetry assumption on the phase behavior of the system. In the absence of this assumption, one can observe large differences in the equilibrium densities between the rotationally symmetric case and the non-rotationally symmetric case. A simple analytical model is developed that illustrates the driving thermodynamic forces responsible for this symmetry breaking. Our results have implications for the current understanding of the polymer behavior in cylindrical nanopores.

T lymphocytes are stimulated when they recognize short peptides bound to class I proteins of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) protein, as peptide–MHC complexes. Due to the diversity in T-cell receptor (TCR) molecules together with both the peptides and MHC proteins they bind to, it has been difficult to design vaccines and treatments based on these interactions. Machine learning has made some progress in trying to predict the immunogenicity of peptide sequences in the context of specific MHC class I alleles but, as such approaches cannot integrate temporal information and lack explanatory power, their scope will always be limited. Here, we advocate a mechanistic description of antigen presentation and TCR activation which is explanatory, predictive, and quantitative, drawing on modeling approaches that collectively span several length and time scales, being capable of furnishing reliable biological descriptions that are difficult for experimentalists to provide. It is a form of multiscale systems biology. We propose the use of chemical rate equations to describe the time evolution of the foreign and host proteins to explain how the original proteins end up being presented on the cell surface as peptide fragments, while we invoke molecular dynamics to describe the key binding processes on the molecular level, including those of peptide–MHC complexes with TCRs which lie at the heart of the immune response. On each level, complementary methods based on machine learning are available, and we discuss the relationship between these divergent approaches. The pursuit of predictive mechanistic modeling approaches requires experimentalists to adapt their work so as to acquire, store, and expose data that can be used to verify and validate such models.

The rate of progression of HIV infected individuals to AIDS is known to vary with the genotype of the host, and is linked to their allele of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) proteins, which present protein degradation products at the cell surface to circulating T-cells. HLA alleles are associated with Gag-specific T-cell responses that are protective against progression of the disease. While Pol is the most conserved HIV sequence, its association with immune control is not as strong. To gain a more thorough quantitative understanding of the factors that contribute to immunodominance, we have constructed a model of the recognition of HIV infection by the MHC class I pathway. Our model predicts surface presentation of HIV peptides over time, demonstrates the importance of viral protein kinetics, and provides evidence of the importance of Gag peptides in the long-term control of HIV infection. Furthermore, short-term dynamics are also predicted, with simulation of virion-derived peptides suggesting that efficient processing of Gag can lead to a 50% probability of presentation within 3 hours post-infection, as observed experimentally. In conjunction with epitope prediction algorithms, this modelling approach could be used to refine experimental targets for potential T-cell vaccines, both for HIV and other viruses.

Epistasis and cooperativity of folding both result from networks of energetic interactions in proteins. Epistasis results from energetic interactions among mutants, whereas cooperativity results from energetic interactions during folding that reduce the presence of intermediate states. The two concepts seem intuitively related, but it is unknown how they are related, particularly in terms of selection. To investigate their relationship, we simulated protein evolution under selection for cooperativity and separately under selection for epistasis. Strong selection for cooperativity created strong epistasis between contacts in the native structure but weakened epistasis between nonnative contacts. In contrast, selection for epistasis increased epistasis in both native and nonnative contacts and reduced cooperativity. Because epistasis can be used to predict protein structure only if it preferentially occurs in native contacts, this result indicates that selection for cooperativity may be key for predicting structure using epistasis. To evaluate this inference, we simulated the evolution of guanine nucleotide-binding protein (GB1) with and without cooperativity. With cooperativity, strong epistatic interactions clearly map out the native GB1 structure, while allowing the presence of intermediate states (low cooperativity) obscured the structure. This indicates that using epistasis measurements to reconstruct protein structure may be inappropriate for proteins with stable intermediates.

Pathogen evolution of drug resistance often occurs in a stepwise manner via accumulation of multiple mutations, which in combination have a non-additive impact on fitness, a phenomenon known as epistasis. Epistasis complicates the sequence-structure-function relationship and undermines our ability to predict evolution. We present a computational method to predict evolutionary trajectories that accounts for epistasis, using the Rosetta Flex ddG protocol to estimate drug binding free energy changes upon mutation and an evolutionary model based in thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. We apply this method to predict evolutionary trajectories to known multiple mutations associated with resistant phenotypes in malaria. Resistance to the combination drug sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in malaria-causing species Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) and Plasmodium vivax (Pv) has arisen via the accumulation of multiple point mutations in the DHFR and DHPS genes. Four known PfDHFR pyrimethamine resistance mutations are highly prevalent in field-isolates and multiple studies have shown epistatic interactions between these mutations determine the accessible evolutionary trajectories to the highly resistant quadruple mutation N51I,C59R,S108N,I164L. We simulated the possible evolutionary trajectories to this quadruple PfDHFR mutation as well as the homologous PvDHFR mutations. In both cases, our most probable pathways agreed well with those determined experimentally. We also applied this method to predict the most likely evolutionary pathways to observed multiple mutations associated with sulfadoxine resistance in PfDHPS and PvDHPS. This novel method can be applied to any drug-target system where the drug acts by binding to the target.

Resistance to drugs used to treat tuberculosis disease (TB) continues to remain a public health burden, with missense point mutations in the underlying Mycobacterium tuberculosis bacteria described for nearly all anti-TB drugs. The post-genomics era along with advances in computational and structural biology provide opportunities to understand the interrelationships between the genetic basis and the structural consequences of M. tuberculosis mutations linked to drug resistance. Pyrazinamide (PZA) is a crucial first line antibiotic currently used in TB treatment regimens. The mutational promiscuity exhibited by the pncA gene (target for PZA) necessitates computational approaches to investigate the genetic and structural basis for PZA resistance development. We analysed 424 missense point mutations linked to PZA resistance derived from ∼35K M. tuberculosis clinical isolates sourced globally, which comprised the four main M. tuberculosis lineages (Lineage 1–4). Mutations were annotated to reflect their association with PZA resistance. Genomic measures (minor allele frequency and odds ratio), structural features (surface area, residue depth and hydrophobicity) and biophysical effects (change in stability and ligand affinity) of point mutations on pncA protein stability and ligand affinity were assessed. Missense point mutations within pncA were distributed throughout the gene, with the majority (>80%) of mutations with a destabilising effect on protomer stability and on ligand affinity. Active site residues involved in PZA binding were associated with multiple point mutations highlighting mutational diversity due to selection pressures at these functionally important sites. There were weak associations between genomic measures and biophysical effect of mutations. However, mutations associated with PZA resistance showed statistically significant differences between structural features (surface area and residue depth), but not hydrophobicity score for mutational sites. Most interestingly M. tuberculosis lineage 1 (ancient lineage) exhibited a distinct protein stability profile for mutations associated with PZA resistance, compared to modern lineages.