SummaryGlobal multiregional input-output databases (GMRIOs) became the standard tool for tracking environmental impacts through global supply chains. To date, several GMRIOs are available, but the numerical results differ. This paper considers how GMRIOs can be made more robust and authoritative. We show that GMRIOs need detail in environmentally relevant sectors. On the basis of a review of earlier work, we conclude that the highest uncertainty in footprint analyses is caused by the environmental data used in a GMRIO, followed by the size of country measured in gross domestic product (GDP) as fraction of the global total, the structure of the national table, and only at the end the structure of trade. We suggest the following to enhance robustness of results. In the short term, we recommend using the Single country National Accounts Consistent footprint approach, that uses official data for extensions and the national table for the country in question, combined with embodiments in imports calculated using a GMRIO. In a time period of 2 to 3 years, we propose work on harmonized environmental data for water, carbon, materials, and land, and use the aggregated Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Inter-Country Input-Output GMRIO as default in combination with detailing procedures developed in, for example, the EXIOBASE and Eora projects. In the long term, solutions should be coordinated by the international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) Statistical Division, OECD, and Eurostat. This could ensure that when input-output tables and trade data of individual countries are combined, that the global totals are consistent and that bilateral trade asymmetries are resolved.
Keywords:embodiments in trade footprints impact assessment industrial ecology input-output analysis (IOA) statistical offices
Conflict of interest statement:The authors have no conflict to declare.
Although multiregional input-output (MRIO) databases use data from national statistical offices, the reconciliation of various data sources results in significantly altered country data. This makes it problematic to use MRIO-based footprints for national policy-making. This paper develops a potential solution using the Netherlands as case study. The method ensures that the footprint is derived from an MRIO dataset (in our case the World Input-Output Database (WIOD)) that is made consistent with Dutch National accounts data. Furthermore, usage of microdata allows us to separate re-exports at the company level. The adjustment results in a foreign footprint in 2009 that is 22% lower than the original WIOD estimates and a significantly altered country allocation. We demonstrate that already in the data preparation phase due to the treatment of re-exports and margins, large differences arise with Dutch national statistics, which may help explain the variation in footprint estimates across MRIO databases.
The effect of changes in trade patterns, particularly increasing international sourcing, on global CO 2 -emissions growth has yet to be clearly understood. In this paper, we estimate the emission cost of sourcing (ECS), which originates from replacing domestic products by imports from countries with more CO 2 -intensive technologies. Using a structural decomposition analysis, we find that changes in sourcing patterns between 1995 and 2007 contribute (1) to reducing territorial emissions in high-wage countries (70% of their territorial emissions growth) and (2) to increasing territorial emissions in lowwage countries (30% of their territorial emissions increase). The net global effect, the ECS, amounts to 18% of total global CO 2 -emissions growth. Our results call the climate change policies based on territorial principles into question given that they disregard that differences in emission intensities between countries contribute to raising global emissions. In contrast, policies fostering the transfer of cleaner technologies to low-wage countries decrease the ECS.
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