Water molecules play a crucial role in mediating the interaction between a ligand and a macromolecular receptor. An understanding of the nature and role of each water molecule in the active site of a protein could greatly increase the efficiency of rational drug design approaches: if the propensity of a water molecule for displacement can be determined, then synthetic effort may be most profitably applied to the design of specific ligands with the displacement of this water molecule in mind. In this paper, a thermodynamic analysis of water molecules in the binding sites of six proteins, each complexed with a number of inhibitors, is presented. Two classes of water molecules were identified: those conserved and not displaced by any of the ligands, and those that are displaced by some ligands. The absolute binding free energies of 54 water molecules were calculated using the double decoupling method, with replica exchange thermodynamic integration in Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that conserved water molecules are on average more tightly bound than displaced water molecules. In addition, Bayesian statistics is used to calculate the probability that a particular water molecule may be displaced by an appropriately designed ligand, given the calculated binding free energy of the water molecule. This approach therefore allows the numerical assessment of whether or not a given water molecule should be targeted for displacement as part of a rational drug design strategy.

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Water molecules are commonplace in protein binding pockets, where they can typically form a complex between the protein and a ligand or become displaced upon ligand binding.As a result, it is often of great interest to establish both the binding free energy and location of such molecules. Several approaches to predicting the location and affinity of water molecules to proteins have been proposed and utilized in the literature, although it is often unclear which method should be used under what circumstances. We report here a comparison between three such methodologies; Just Add Water Molecules (JAWS), Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) and double-decoupling, in the hope of understanding the advantages and limitations of each method when applied to enclosed binding sites. As a result, we have adapted the JAWS scoring procedure, allowing the binding free energies of strongly bound water molecules to be * To whom correspondence should be addressed † University of Southampton ‡ Syngenta ¶ University of Edinburgh 1 calculated to a high degree of accuracy, requiring significantly less computational effort than more rigorous approaches. The combination of JAWS and GCMC offers a route to a rapid scheme capable of both locating and scoring water molecules for rational drug design.

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