Objective:The models currently available for predicting the risk of seizure recurrence after antiepileptic drug (AED) withdrawal in adult epilepsy patients include the prediction model developed by Lamberink et al (Lamberink model, 2017) and the Medical Research Council prediction model (MRC model, 1993). However, there was no external validation for the two models. The purpose of this study was to perform an independent external validation and a comparison of the Lamberink model and the MRC model in adult patients. Methods: The study population was recruited from the Wenzhou Epilepsy Follow-up Registry Database (WEFURD). All the predictors of the Lamberink and MRC models and the occurrence of seizure recurrence in the participants were collected based on the WEFURD. Participants' predicted probabilities of seizure recurrence were obtained by a Web-based tool and the prognostic index formula. The external validation of the Lamberink model and the MRC model were quantified by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Of 212 patients, 126 (59.4%) had seizure recurrence after AED withdrawal. The Lamberink 2-year model, the Lamberink 5-year model, the MRC 1-year model, and the MRC 2-year model had areas under the curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64-0.78), 0.68 (95% CI = 0.60-0.76), 0.60 (95% CI = 0.50-0.69), and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.50-0.66), respectively. Additionally, the Lamberink 2-year model had a significantly better integrated discrimination improvement than the MRC 2-year model (P < .001). Regarding calibration, the Lamberink 2-year model (P = .121) and the MRC 1-year model (P = .264) were well calibrated, but the Lamberink 5-year model (P = .022) and the MRC 2-year model (P = .008) were not. In the DCA, the Lamberink 2-year model performed well at threshold probabilities of 30%-65%. Significance: This external validation shows that the Lamberink 2-year model might be more accurate and has greater clinical benefit than others for guiding drug withdrawal in adult epilepsy clinics. 116 | LIN et aL. K E Y W O R D S adult epilepsy, drug withdrawal, external validation, prediction model, seizure recurrence Key Points • The Lamberink 2-year model had the highest AUC (0.71) among the models in the external validation • The Lamberink 2-year model (P = .121) and the MRC 1-year model (P = .264) were well calibrated, but the other prediction models were not • In the DCA, the Lamberink 2-year model performed well at threshold probabilities of 30%-65%

No abstract

ObjectiveTo evaluate and compare long-term effectiveness of five antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) for monotherapy of adult patients with focal epilepsy in routine clinical practice.MethodsAdult patients with focal epilepsy, who were prescribed with carbamazepine (CBZ), valproate (VPA), lamotrigine (LTG), topiramate (TPM), or oxcarbazepine (OXC) as monotherapy, during the period from January 2004 to June 2012 registered in Wenzhou Epilepsy Follow Up Registry Database (WEFURD), were included in the study. Prospective long-term follow-up was conducted until June 2013. The endpoints were time to treatment failure, time to seizure remission, and time to first seizure.ResultsThis study included 654 patients: CBZ (n=125), VPA (n=151), LTG (n=135), TPM (n=76), and OXC (n=167). The retention rates of CBZ, VPA, LTG, TPM, and OXC at the third year were 36.1%, 32.4%, 57.6%, 37.9%, and 41.8%, respectively. For time to treatment failure, LTG was significantly better than CBZ and VPA (LTG vs. CBZ, hazard ratio, [HR] 0.80 [95% confidence interval: 0.67-0.96], LTG vs. VPA, 0.53 [0.37-0.74]); TPM was worse than LTG (TPM vs. LTG, 1.77 [1.15-2.74]), and OXC was better than VPA (0.86 [0.78-0.96]). After initial target doses, the seizure remission rates of CBZ, VPA, LTG, TPM, and OXC were 63.0%, 77.0%, 83.6%, 67.9%, and 75.3%, respectively. LTG was significantly better than CBZ (1.44 [1.15-1.82]) and OXC (LTG vs. OXC, 0.76 [0.63-0.93]); OXC was less effective than LTG in preventing the first seizure (1.20 [1.02-1.40]).ConclusionLTG was the best, OXC was better than VPA only, while VPA was the worst. The others were equivalent for comparisons between five AEDs regarding the long-term treatment outcomes of monotherapy for adult patients with focal epilepsy in a clinical practice. For selecting AEDs for these patients among the first-line drugs, LTG is an appropriate first choice; others are reservation in the first-line but VPA is not.

No abstract

No abstract