Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave from late June to early July 2021, which lies far outside the historical range. Based on the model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that the likelihood of a heatwave over WNA similar to the 2021 one increases with global warming. Such a heatwave is projected to occur more frequently with increased extreme temperature and shortened return period. It means that a rare event in the current climate will be a more common event in a warmer climate, especially under a high‐emission scenario like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (SSP5‐8.5). Moreover, we show a large expansion of areas over WNA that will break the 2021 record in the future with an increasing level of emission scenario. Nevertheless, some heatwave records west of the Rocky Mountains are still difficult to break, highlighting the specific extremity of the 2021 WNA heatwave.
Based on the vertical velocity field of reanalysis datasets, this study defines a new dynamical index for the India-Burma trough and supports this index's advantages by analyzing reanalysis and observational datasets. For a convenient understanding, the vertical velocities of 5 levels ranging from 700 hPa to 500 hPa within the area of 15.625 ∘ N-24.375 ∘ N and 90.625 ∘ E-100.625 ∘ E are multiplied by −1 and summed up into a time series involving each year from 1979 to 2012. The standardized value of the time series is defined as the index of India-Burma trough (IIBT). IIBT can reflect the characteristics of the annual strength and the interdecadal variation of the India-Burma trough. IIBT can also well reveal the relationship between the India-Burma trough and its upstream teleconnection. What is more, through a correlation analysis on the grid point precipitation field, respectively, with the IIBT and the India-Burma trough indices defined with vorticity and geopotential height, over southern Asia the correlation pattern between the IIBT and the precipitation field is found to nearly be the sum of the correlation patterns of the latter 2 indices with the precipitation. To the south of the TP, the correlation field between the IIBT and the grid point precipitation shows dipolar distribution, which is consistent with the correlation patterns of the IIBT with the vertical velocity, specific humidity, and the mid-level geopotential height in the same spatial location. IIBT is beneficial for more accurate study of the impact of the India-Burma trough on the associated weather and climate.
A new teleconnection pattern (the BEAP) across the Bay of Bengal‐East Asia‐Pacific region in boreal summer is revealed in this study using mainly ERA‐Interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. The BEAP index (BEAPI) is defined as the signed sum of standardized apparent moisture sinks at five centers along the pathway. Correlation analysis of the apparent heat sources and apparent moisture sinks has verified the existence of the BEAP teleconnection. Variations in BEAP can affect precipitation anomalies resulting from the anomalous moisture transport and the antiphase surface temperature variation. Wave flux analysis has verified the Rossby wave propagation route that originates around the central Bay of Bengal and extends across North China to the West Pacific. La Niña‐type sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) appearing simultaneously in the same season can excite a positive BEAP pattern by enhancing convection over the Bay of Bengal, while El Niño‐type SSTAs have the opposite effect. Significant correlation between the BEAPI and the SSTAs can last from early summer to early winter. Numerical experiments confirm the BEAP teleconnection pattern and the associated physical processes.
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