China’s consumption of transport fuels, mainly gasoline and diesel, has increased in the past decade, but at rather different rates. It is expected that the increase rates will differ further due to slow down of the economy, mainly affecting diesel demand, and fast development of the private car sector, leading to fast increase in gasoline demand. On the supply side, a certain degree of uncertainty and flexibility also exists, mainly resulting from potential changes in oil import amount and quality, development of alternative liquid fuels, retrofitting refineries and building new ones, and others. In this paper, a virtual refinery model is established to analyze the productivity of gasoline and diesel in China up to 2030. This model is at a national level where all possible physical flows, oil products, and the primary and secondary processing routes are taken into consideration. On the demand side, we present a model to analyze gasoline demand from the passenger car sector in various scenarios, covering different types of cars and concerning impacts of vehicle age distribution and penetration of alternative fuels. Results indicate that the production ratio between diesel and gasoline in China can change in the range between 1.27 and 2.92. A gap of 20 million tonnes between demand and supply of gasoline may appear around 2019 and afterward, which brings opportunities for alternative transport fuels and vehicles.
Despite the efforts of the past decade, maritime piracy remains of international concern today. Countries need to cooperate actively at both the regional and international levels to eradicate the problem effectively. In particular, the nature of the threat in the Asia-Pacific region suggests that coastal statescountries that possess sovereignty over the pirate-infested waters but lack the lawenforcement resources -have to turn to resource-rich extra-regional powers for assistance. Unfortunately, cooperation between such disparate countries has traditionally been impeded by sovereignty sensitivities, as best exemplified by Malaysia's and Indonesia's hostile responses to the United States' Regional Maritime Security Initiative in 2003. Faced with this apparent dilemma, a new phenomenon has emerged. National coast guard agencies, instead of their military naval counterparts, have become attractive alternatives for promoting international cooperation against non-traditional security threats, such as maritime piracy. Spearheaded by the Japanese Coast Guard (JCG), coast guards from various countries have imparted training expertise, conducted joint exercises, hosted low-publicity multilateral meetings, and even transferred security equipment across international borders. Together they have succeeded in promoting cooperation without arousing the sovereignty sensitivities often associated with such cooperation. This article analyzes the evolution of coast guard cooperation in Asia, highlighting in particular the Japanese Coast Guard's success in this endeavor. With the general alignment of regional and global power interests in Southeast Asia, coast guard agencies hold promise for extra-regional powers wishing to help eradicate maritime piracy in the region.
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