The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently been declared as a pandemic and spread over 200 countries and territories. Forecasting the long-term trend of the COVID-19 epidemic can help health authorities determine the transmission characteristics of the virus and take appropriate prevention and control strategies beforehand. Previous studies that solely applied traditional epidemic models or machine learning models were subject to underfitting or overfitting problems. We propose a new model named Dynamic-Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Quarantined (D-SEIQ), by making appropriate modifications of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) model and integrating machine learning based parameter optimization under epidemiological rational constraints. We used the model to predict the long-term reported cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases in China from January 27, 2020. We evaluated our model on officially reported confirmed cases from three different regions in China, and the results proved the effectiveness of our model in terms of simulating and predicting the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. In China-Excluding-Hubei area within 7 days after the first public report, our model successfully and accurately predicted the long trend up to 40 days and the exact date of the outbreak peak. The predicted cumulative number (12,506) by March 10, 2020, was only 3·8% different from the actual number (13,005). The parameters obtained by our model proved the effectiveness of prevention and intervention strategies on epidemic control in China. The prediction results for five other countries suggested the external validity of our model. The integrated approach of epidemic and machine learning models could accurately forecast the long-term trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. The model parameters also provided insights into the analysis of COVID-19 transmission and the effectiveness of interventions in China.
The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently been declared as a pandemic and spread over 200 countries and territories. Forecasting the long-term trend of the COVID-19 epidemic can help health authorities determine the transmission characteristics of the virus and take appropriate prevention and control strategies beforehand. This protocol introduced a new model named Dynamic-Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Quarantined (D-SEIQ), by making appropriate modifications of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) model and integrating machine learning based parameter optimization under epidemiological rational constraints. The model could be applied to forecast the long-term trend of the current COVID-19 epidemic. The parameters obtained by the model could help assess the effectiveness of prevention and intervention strategies on epidemic control in different countries.
Federated Learning (FL) is an emerging decentralized artificial intelligence paradigm, which promises to train a shared global model in high-quality while protecting user data privacy. However, the current systems rely heavily on a strong assumption: all clients have a wealth of ground truth labeled data, which may not be always feasible in the real life. In this paper, we present a practical Robust and Communication-efficient Semi-supervised FL (RC-SSFL) system design which can enable the clients to jointly learn a highquality model that is comparable to typical FL's performance. In this setting, we assume that the client has only unlabeled data and the server has a limited amount of labeled data. Besides, we consider malicious clients can launch poisoning attacks to harm the performance of the global model. To solve this issue, RC-SSFL employs a minimax optimization-based client selection strategy to select the clients who hold high-quality updates and uses geometric median aggregation to robustly aggregate model updates. Furthermore, RC-SSFL implements a novel symmetric quantization method to greatly improve communication efficiency. Extensive case studies on two real-world datasets demonstrate that RC-SSFL can maintain the performance comparable to typical FL in the presence of poisoning attacks and reduce communication overhead by 2× ∼ 4×.
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