No abstract

The annual hunt of Muttonbirds (chicks of the Sooty Shearwater, Puffinus griseus), undertaken by the Rakiura Māori people of southern New Zealand, is economically and socially integral to their cultural identity. Muttonbirders concerned at ensuring that the hunt remains viable for coming generations have provided catch records to help ascertain historic trends in hunt success. Analysis of eight catch diaries for a 67-year period demonstrates considerable consistency across diaries in the variability of hunt success, as measured by annualized mean daily hunt tallies. A conservative estimate of the overall annual decline in hunt success is -1.89% (95% CI: -1.14% to -2.65%). Birders' observations of a changing relationship between chick quality and hunt success was evidenced across diaries. Reduced hunt success from the 1990s indicates that possible adult "knockdowns" and/or sustained substantial reductions in breeding proportions have occurred. Chick size has remained constant, suggesting little change in the provisioning environment. Catch per unit effort data, provided by a single diary, confirms a link between variability in annual hunt success and chick abundance. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are correlated with hunt success and chick size, respectively. Interannual PDO+ (or PDO-) values are correlated with higher (or lower) tallies, whereas SAM+ (or SAM) values are associated with larger (or smaller) chick size. Uncertainty in the relationship between the breeding Sooty Shearwater population, chick catch, and environmental perturbation in their feeding grounds could be reduced with the inclusion of hunt time in all diary records. Ongoing prolonged decline in a top-trophic-level predator such as the Sooty Shearwater raises serious concern that long-term oceanic changes have been occurring and that long-term sustainability of muttonbirding is in doubt.

No abstract

A suite of factors may have contributed to declines in the tītī (sooty shearwater; Ardenna grisea) population in the New Zealand region since at least the 1960s. Recent estimation of the magnitude of most sources of non-natural mortality has presented the opportunity to quantitatively assess the relative importance of these factors. We fit a range of population dynamics models to a time-series of relative abundance data from 1976 until 2005, with the various sources of mortality being modelled at the appropriate part of the life-cycle. We present estimates of effects obtained from the best-fitting model and using model averaging. The best-fitting models explained much of the variation in the abundance index when survival and fecundity were linked to the Southern Oscillation Index, with strong decreases in adult survival, juvenile survival and fecundity being related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Predation by introduced animals, harvesting by humans, and bycatch in fisheries also appear to have contributed to the population decline. It is envisioned that the best-fitting models will form the basis for quantitative assessments of competing management strategies. Our analysis suggests that sustainability of the New Zealand tītī population will be most influenced by climate, in particular by how climate change will affect the frequency and intensity of ENSO events in the future. Removal of the effects of both depredation by introduced predators and harvesting by humans is likely to have fewer benefits for the population than alleviating climate effects.

Many factors have contributed to a decline in the tītī (sooty shearwater) Ardenna grisea population in Aotearoa New Zealand since at least the 1960s. The relative impacts of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variation, bycatch, predation, and traditional harvesting by Rakiura Māori were recently estimated in a study fitting population models to data from the period 1976-2005. Annual mean SOI was related to both adult survival and fecundity. We used the results from that study to project abundance of tītī under a range of management strategies and future SOI scenarios, based on 41 climate models. Projections over the period 2019-2070 showed marked variation across the climate models. When the proportion of chicks harvested and the level of depredation by weka Gallirallus australis were set at their historical means and the proportion of birds killed in bycatch was set at an upper bound based on current estimates, the probability of a decline ranged from 0.30 to 1.00, across all climate models. When both bycatch and depredation by weka were set to zero, the probability of a decline ranged from 0.11 to 1.00, across all climate models. Our results suggest that future abundance of tītī in Aotearoa New Zealand will depend to a large extent on SOI conditions over the coming decades. As climate-model uncertainty makes reliable prediction of future SOI conditions difficult, adaptive management is likely to be the best option for Rakiura Māori, the kaitiaki (environmental guardians) of the Rakiura Tītī Islands, to maintain sustainable tītī harvests.