Precise near-ground trajectory control is difficult for multi-rotor drones, due to the complex aerodynamic effects caused by interactions between multi-rotor airflow and the environment. Conventional control methods often fail to properly account for these complex effects and fall short in accomplishing smooth landing. In this paper, we present a novel deeplearning-based robust nonlinear controller (Neural-Lander) that improves control performance of a quadrotor during landing. Our approach combines a nominal dynamics model with a Deep Neural Network (DNN) that learns high-order interactions. We apply spectral normalization (SN) to constrain the Lipschitz constant of the DNN. Leveraging this Lipschitz property, we design a nonlinear feedback linearization controller using the learned model and prove system stability with disturbance rejection. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first DNNbased nonlinear feedback controller with stability guarantees that can utilize arbitrarily large neural nets. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed controller significantly outperforms a Baseline Nonlinear Tracking Controller in both landing and cross-table trajectory tracking cases. We also empirically show that the DNN generalizes well to unseen data outside the training domain.
Traffic forecasting is a vital part of intelligent transportation systems. It becomes particularly challenging due to short-term (e.g., accidents, constructions) and long-term (e.g., peak-hour, seasonal, weather) traffic patterns. While most of the previously proposed techniques focus on normal condition forecasting, a single framework for extreme condition traffic forecasting does not exist. To address this need, we propose to take a deep learning approach. We build a deep neural network based on long short term memory (LSTM) units. We apply Deep LSTM to forecast peak-hour traffic and manage to identify unique characteristics of the traffic data. We further improve the model for postaccident forecasting with Mixture Deep LSTM model. It jointly models the normal condition traffic and the pattern of accidents. We evaluate our model on a realworld large-scale traffic dataset in Los Angeles. When trained end-to-end with suitable regularization, our approach achieves 30%-50% improvement over baselines. We also demonstrate a novel technique to interpret the model with signal stimulation. We note interesting observations from the trained neural network.
Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.
Machine learning (ML) provides novel and powerful ways of accurately and efficiently recognizing complex patterns, emulating nonlinear dynamics, and predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of weather and climate processes. Off-the-shelf ML models, however, do not necessarily obey the fundamental governing laws of physical systems, nor do they generalize well to scenarios on which they have not been trained. We survey systematic approaches to incorporating physics and domain knowledge into ML models and distill these approaches into broad categories. Through 10 case studies, we show how these approaches have been used successfully for emulating, downscaling, and forecasting weather and climate processes. The accomplishments of these studies include greater physical consistency, reduced training time, improved data efficiency, and better generalization. Finally, we synthesize the lessons learned and identify scientific, diagnostic, computational, and resource challenges for developing truly robust and reliable physics-informed ML models for weather and climate processes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Machine learning for weather and climate modelling’.
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