Study objective: To estimate the number of accident and emergency (A&E) attendances, admissions to hospital, and the associated costs as a result of unintentional falls in older people. Design: Analysis of national databases for cost of illness. Setting: United Kingdom, 1999, cost to the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS). Participants: Four age groups of people 60 years and over (60-64, 65-69, 70-74, and >75) attending an A&E department or admitted to hospital after an unintentional fall. Databases analysed were the Home Accident Surveillance System (HASS) and Leisure Accident Surveillance System (LASS), and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Main results: There were 647 721 A&E attendances and 204 424 admissions to hospital for fall related injuries in people aged 60 years and over. For the four age groups A&E attendance rates per 10 000 population were 273.5, 287.3, 367.9, and 945.3, and hospital admission rates per 10 000 population were 34.5, 52.0, 91.9, and 368.6. The cost per 10 000 population was £300 000 in the 60-64 age group, increasing to £1 500 000 in the >75 age group. These falls cost the UK government £981 million, of which the NHS incurred 59.2%. Most of the costs (66%) were attributable to falls in those aged >75 years. The major cost driver was inpatient admissions, accounting for 49.4% of total cost of falls. Long term care costs were the second highest, accounting for 41%, primarily in those aged >75 years. Conclusions: Unintentional falls impose a substantial burden on health and social services.

Objective To describe the psychological impact on women of being tested for human papillomavirus (HPV) when smear test results are borderline or mildly dyskaryotic. Design Cross sectional questionnaire study. Setting Two centres participating in an English pilot study of HPV testing in women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear test results. Participants Women receiving borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear test results tested for HPV and found to be HPV positive (n = 536) or HPV negative (n = 331); and women not tested for HPV with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear results (n = 143) or normal smear results (n = 366). Main outcome measures State anxiety, distress, and concern about test result, assessed within four weeks of receipt of results. Results Women with borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear results who were HPV positive were more anxious, distressed, and concerned than the other three groups. Three variables independently predicted anxiety in HPV positive women: younger age ( = − 0.11, P = 0.03), higher perceived risk of cervical cancer ( = 0.17, P < 0.001), and reporting that they did not understand the meaning of test results ( = 0.17, P = 0.001). Testing HPV negative was not reassuring: among women with abnormal smear test results, those who were HPV negative were no less anxious than those who were not tested for HPV. Conclusions Informing women more effectively about the meaning of borderline or mildly dyskaryotic smear test results and HPV status, in particular about the absolute risks of cervical cancer and the prevalence of HPV infection, may avoid some anxiety for those who are HPV positive while achieving some reassurance for those who test HPV negative.

Aims To develop a model for estimating the immediate and long-term healthcare costs associated with seven diabetes-related complications in patients with Type 2 diabetes participating in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). MethodsThe costs associated with some major complications were estimated using data on 5102 UKPDS patients (mean age 52.4 years at diagnosis). In-patient and out-patient costs were estimated using multiple regression analysis based on costs calculated from the length of admission multiplied by the average specialty cost and a survey of 3488 UKPDS patients' healthcare usage conducted in 1996-1997. ResultsUsing the model, the estimate of the cost of first complications were as follows: amputation £8459 (95% confidence interval £5295, £13 200); nonfatal myocardial infarction £4070 (£3580, £4722); fatal myocardial infarction £1152 (£941, £1396); fatal stroke £3383 (£1935, £5431); non-fatal stroke £2367 (£1599, £3274); ischaemic heart disease £1959 (£1467, £2541); heart failure £2221 (£1690, £2896); cataract extraction £1553 (£1320, £1855); and blindness in one eye £872 (£526, £1299). The annual average in-patient cost of events in subsequent years ranged from £631 (£403, £896) for heart failure to £105 (£80, £142) for cataract extraction. Non-in-patient costs for macrovascular complications were £315 (£247, £394) and for microvascular complications were £273 (£215, £343) in the year of the event. In each subsequent year the costs were, respectively, £258 (£228, £297) and £204 (£181, £255).Conclusions These results provide estimates of the immediate and long-term healthcare costs associated with seven diabetes-related complications.

Background:Population-based testing for BRCA1/2 mutations detects the high proportion of carriers not identified by cancer family history (FH)–based testing. We compared the cost-effectiveness of population-based BRCA testing with the standard FH-based approach in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women.Methods:A decision-analytic model was developed to compare lifetime costs and effects amongst AJ women in the UK of BRCA founder-mutation testing amongst: 1) all women in the population age 30 years or older and 2) just those with a strong FH (≥10% mutation risk). The model assumes that BRCA carriers are offered risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy and annual MRI/mammography screening or risk-reducing mastectomy. Model probabilities utilize the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial/published literature to estimate total costs, effects in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cancer incidence, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and population impact. Costs are reported at 2010 prices. Costs/outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. We used deterministic/probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate model uncertainty.Results:Compared with FH-based testing, population-screening saved 0.090 more life-years and 0.101 more QALYs resulting in 33 days’ gain in life expectancy. Population screening was found to be cost saving with a baseline-discounted ICER of -£2079/QALY. Population-based screening lowered ovarian and breast cancer incidence by 0.34% and 0.62%. Assuming 71% testing uptake, this leads to 276 fewer ovarian and 508 fewer breast cancer cases. Overall, reduction in treatment costs led to a discounted cost savings of £3.7 million. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and 94% of simulations on PSA (threshold £20000) indicated that population screening is cost-effective, compared with current NHS policy.Conclusion:Population-based screening for BRCA mutations is highly cost-effective compared with an FH-based approach in AJ women age 30 years and older.

SummaryBackgroundBullying, aggression, and violence among children and young people are some of the most consequential public mental health problems. We tested the Learning Together intervention, which involved students in efforts to modify their school environment using restorative practice and by developing social and emotional skills.MethodsWe did a cluster randomised trial, with economic and process evaluations, of the Learning Together intervention compared with standard practice (controls) over 3 years in secondary schools in south-east England. Learning Together consisted of staff training in restorative practice; convening and facilitating a school action group; and a student social and emotional skills curriculum. Primary outcomes were self-reported experience of bullying victimisation (Gatehouse Bullying Scale; GBS) and perpetration of aggression (Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime (ESYTC) school misbehaviour subscale) measured at 36 months. We analysed data using intention-to-treat longitudinal mixed-effects models. This trial was registered with the ISRCTN registry (10751359).FindingsWe included 40 schools (20 in each group); no schools withdrew. 6667 (93·6%) of 7121 students participated at baseline and 5960 (83·3%) of 7154 at 36 months. Mean GBS bullying score at 36 months was 0·34 (SE 0·02) in the control group versus 0·29 (SE 0·02) in the intervention group, with a significant adjusted mean difference (−0·03, 95% CI −0·06 to −0·001; adjusted effect size −0·08). Mean ESYTC score at 36 months was 4·33 (SE 0·20) in the control group versus 4·04 (0·21) in the intervention group, with no evidence of a difference between groups (adjusted difference −0·13, 95% CI −0·43 to 0·18; adjusted effect size −0·03). Costs were an additional £58 per pupil in intervention schools than in control schools.InterpretationLearning Together had small but significant effects on bullying, which could be important for public health, but no effect on aggression. Interventions to promote student health by modifying the whole-school environment are likely to be one of the most feasible and efficient ways of addressing closely related risk and health outcomes in children and young people.FundingNational Institute for Health Research, Educational Endowment Foundation.

In economic evaluation, mathematical models have a central role as a way of integrating all the relevant information about a disease and health interventions, in order to estimate costs and consequences over an extended time horizon. Models are based on scientific knowledge of disease (which is likely to change over time), simplifying assumptions and input parameters with different levels of uncertainty; therefore, it is sensible to explore the consistency of model predictions with observational data. Calibration is a useful tool for estimating uncertain parameters, as well as more accurately defining model uncertainty (particularly with respect to the representation of correlations between parameters). Calibration involves the comparison of model outputs (e.g. disease prevalence rates) with empirical data, leading to the identification of model parameter values that achieve a good fit. This article provides guidance on the theoretical underpinnings of different calibration methods. The calibration process is divided into seven steps and different potential methods at each step are discussed, focusing on the particular features of disease models in economic evaluation. The seven steps are (i) Which parameters should be varied in the calibration process? (ii) Which calibration targets should be used? (iii) What measure of goodness of fit should be used? (iv) What parameter search strategy should be used? (v) What determines acceptable goodness-of-fit parameter sets (convergence criteria)? (vi) What determines the termination of the calibration process (stopping rule)? (vii) How should the model calibration results and economic parameters be integrated? The lack of standards in calibrating disease models in economic evaluation can undermine the credibility of calibration methods. In order to avoid the scepticism regarding calibration, we ought to unify the way we approach the problems and report the methods used, and continue to investigate different methods.

Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing is more cost-effective than any clinical criteria/FH-based strategy. Clinical criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing is more cost-effective than BRCA1/BRCA2 testing alone.

IMPORTANCE Moving to multigene testing for all women with breast cancer (BC) could identify many more mutation carriers who can benefit from precision prevention. However, the cost-effectiveness of this approach remains unaddressed. OBJECTIVE To estimate incremental lifetime effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of multigene testing of all patients with BC compared with the current practice of genetic testing (BRCA) based on family history (FH) or clinical criteria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cost-effectiveness microsimulation modeling study compared lifetime costs and effects of high-risk BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 (multigene) testing of all unselected patients with BC (strategy A) with BRCA1/BRCA2 testing based on FH or clinical criteria (strategy B) in United Kingdom (UK) and US populations. Data were obtained from 11 836 patients in population-based BC cohorts (regardless of FH) recruited to 4 large research studies. Data were collected and analyzed from January 1, 2018, through June 8, 2019. The time horizon is lifetime. Payer and societal perspectives are presented. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analyses evaluate model uncertainty. INTERVENTIONS In strategy A, all women with BC underwent BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 testing. In strategy B, only women with BC fulfilling FH or clinical criteria underwent BRCA testing. Affected BRCA/PALB2 carriers could undertake contralateral preventive mastectomy; BRCA carriers could choose risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO). Relatives of mutation carriers underwent cascade testing. Unaffected relative carriers could undergo magnetic resonance imaging or mammography screening, chemoprevention, or risk-reducing mastectomy for BC risk and RRSO for ovarian cancer (OC) risk. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and compared with standard £30 000/QALY and $100 000/QALY UK and US thresholds, respectively. Incidence of OC, BC, excess deaths due to heart disease, and the overall population effects were estimated. RESULTS BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 multigene testing for all patients detected with BC annually would cost £10 464/QALY