IntroductionThe prognosis of patients with HIV in Africa has improved with the widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) but these successes are threatened by low rates of long-term retention in care. There are limited data on predictors of retention in care, particularly from rural sites.MethodsProspective cohort analysis of outcome measures in adults from a rural HIV care programme in Madwaleni, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The ART programme operates from Madwaleni hospital and seven primary care feeder clinics with full integration between inpatient and outpatient services. Outreach workers conducted home visits for defaulters.Results1803 adults initiated ART from June 2005 to May 2009. At the end of the study period 82.4% were in active care or had transferred elsewhere, 11.1% had died and 6.5% were lost to follow-up (LTFU). Independent predictors associated with an increased risk of LTFU were CD4 nadir >200, initiating ART as an inpatient or while pregnant, and younger age, while being in care for >6 months before initiating ART was associated with a reduced risk. Independent factors associated with an increased risk of mortality were baseline CD4 count <50 and initiating ART as an inpatient, while being in care for >6 months before initiating ART and initiating ART while pregnant were associated with a reduced risk.ConclusionsServing a socioeconomically deprived rural population is not a barrier to successful ART delivery. Patients initiating ART while pregnant and inpatients may require additional counselling and support to reduce LTFU. Providing HIV care for patients not yet eligible for ART may be protective against being LTFU and dying after ART initiation.

BackgroundIncomplete adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) results in virologic failure and resistance. It remains unclear which adherence measure best predicts these outcomes. We compared six patient-reported and objective adherence measures in one ART-naïve cohort in South Africa.MethodsWe recruited 230 participants from a community ART clinic and prospectively collected demographic data, CD4 count and HIV-RNA at weeks 0, 16 and 48. We quantified adherence using 3-day self-report (SR), clinic-based pill count (CPC), average adherence by pharmacy refill (PR-average), calculation of medication-free days (PR-gaps), efavirenz therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) and an electronic adherence monitoring device (EAMD). Associations between adherence measures and virologic and genotypic outcomes were modelled using logistic regression, with the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses derived to assess performance of adherence measures in predicting outcomes.ResultsAt week 48 median (IQR) adherence was: SR 100% (100–100), CPC 100% (95–107), PR-average 103% (95–105), PR-gaps 100% (95–100) and EAMD 86% (59–94), and efavirenz concentrations were therapeutic (>1 mg/L) in 92%. EAMD, PR-average, PR-gaps and CPC best predicted virological outcome at week 48 with AUC ROC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.61–0.83), 0.73 (95% CI 0.61–0.85), 0.72 (95% CI 0.59–0.84) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.52–0.76) respectively. EAMD, PR-gaps and PR-average were highly predictive of detection of resistance mutations at week 48, with AUC ROC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.87–0.97), 0.86 (0.67–1.0) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.65–1.0) respectively. SR and TDM were poorly predictive of outcomes at week 48.ConclusionEAMD and both PR measures predicted resistance and virological failure similarly. Pharmacy refill data is a pragmatic adherence measure in resource-limited settings where electronic monitoring is unavailable. Trial registration The trial was retrospectively registered in the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201311000641402, on the 13 Sep 2013 (www.pactr.org). The first participant was enrolled on the 12th July 2012. The last patient last visit (week 48) was 15 April 2014Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12981-017-0138-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Tuberculosis is an important cause of maternal morbidity, but little is known about the effects of pregnancy on antituberculosis drug concentrations. We developed population pharmacokinetic models to describe drug dispositions of isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol in pregnant women with tuberculosis and HIV. HIV-positive pregnant women with tuberculosis receiving standard first-line tuberculosis treatment and participating in Tshepiso, a prospective cohort study in Soweto, South Africa, underwent sparse pharmacokinetic sampling at >36 weeks of gestation and 7 weeks postpartum. The effects of pregnancy on the pharmacokinetics of isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol were investigated via population pharmacokinetic modeling. Isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol concentrations were available for 29, 18, and 18 women, respectively. Their median weight was 66 kg while pregnant and 64 kg postpartum. No significant differences were observed in drug clearance, volume of distribution, or bioavailability during and after pregnancy. The model-estimated isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0–24) medians were, respectively, 6.88, 419, and 16.5 mg · h/liter during pregnancy versus 5.01, 407, and 19.0 mg · h/liter postpartum. The model-estimated maximum concentration (Cmax) medians for isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol were, respectively, 1.39, 35.9, and 1.82 mg/liter during pregnancy versus 1.43, 34.5, and 2.11 mg/liter postpartum. A posteriori power calculations determined that our analysis was powered 91.8%, 59.2%, and 90.1% at a P of <0.01 to detect a 40% decrease in the AUCs of isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol, respectively. Pregnancy does not appear to cause relevant changes in the exposure to isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol. Additional studies of antituberculosis drugs in pregnancy are needed.

High ART adherence was associated with lower mean monthly direct health care costs, particularly reduced hospitalization costs, in this South African HIV cohort.

Gary Maartens and colleagues describe the direct heath care costs and identify the drivers of cost over time in an HIV managed care program in Southern Africa.

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Background An increasing number of patients in Africa are experiencing virologic failure on second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) and those who develop resistance to protease inhibitors (PI) will require third-line ART, but no data on the outcomes of third-line are available from the region. We assessed the virologic outcomes and survival of patients started on salvage ART in a Southern African private sector disease management programme.Methods Retrospective observational cohort study with linkage to the national death register. Adults (≥18 years) who started salvage ART between July 2007 and December 2011 were included. Salvage ART was defined by inclusion of darunavir or tipranavir in an ART regimen after having failed another PI. For Kaplan–Meier (KM) analysis, patients were followed up until event, or censored at death (only for virologic outcomes), leaving the programme, or April 2014.Results152 patients were included. Subtype was known for 113 patients: 111 (98 %) were infected with subtype C. All 152 had a genotype resistance test demonstrating major PI resistance mutations. Salvage drugs included were: darunavir/ritonavir (n = 149), tipranavir/ritonavir (n = 3), raltegravir (n = 58), and etravirine (n = 8). Median follow-up was 2.5 years (IQR = 1.5–3.3). 82.9 % achieved a viral load ≤400 copies/ml and 71.1 % ≤50 copies/ml. By the end of the study 17 (11.2 %) of the patients had died. The KM estimate of cumulative survival was 87.2 % at 2000 days.ConclusionsVirologic suppression was comparable to that demonstrated in clinical trials and observational studies of salvage ART drugs conducted in other regions. Few deaths occurred during short term follow-up. Third-line regimens for patients with multidrug resistant subtype C HIV in Africa are virologically and clinically effective.