Arctic liquid freshwater (FW) storage has shown a large increase over the past decades, posing the question: Is the Arctic FW budget already showing clear signs of anthropogenic climate change, or are the observed changes the result of multidecadal variability? We show that the observed change in liquid and solid Arctic FW storage is likely already driven by the changing climate, based on ensemble simulations from a state‐of‐the‐art climate model. Generally, the emergence of forced changes in Arctic FW fluxes occurs earlier for oceanic fluxes than for atmospheric or land fluxes. Nares Strait liquid FW flux is the first flux to show emergence outside the range of background variability, with this change potentially already occurring. Other FW fluxes have likely started to shift but have not yet emerged into a completely different regime. Future emissions reductions have the potential to avoid the emergence of some FW fluxes beyond the background variability.
<p>Arctic liquid freshwater (FW) storage has shown a large increase over the past decades, posing the question: Is the Arctic FW budget already showing clear signs of anthropogenic climate change, or are the observed changes the result of multi-decadal variability? Using large ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System model (CESM), we show that the observed change in liquid and solid Arctic FW storage is likely already driven by the changing climate. Generally, the emergence of forced changes in Arctic FW fluxes occurs earlier for oceanic fluxes than for atmospheric or land fluxes. Nares Strait liquid FW flux is the first to show emergence outside the range of background variability in the model, with this change potentially already occurring, followed by Davis Strait. Other FW fluxes have likely started to shift but have not &#160;&#160;yet emerged into a completely different regime. By re-sampling the model simulations, we find that the already changing nature of many FW budget terms over the short (~maximum 25 years) observational period can delay detection of shift and emergence from observations. Future emissions reductions have the potential to avoid the emergence of some FW fluxes beyond the background variability, in particular for runoff and Fram Strait solid FW export. However, under both low and high warming scenarios, all FW fluxes show changes, just not always completely outside the background variability as simulated by the CESM. Overall, this study provides an example of how large ensembles can be used to diagnose forced changes in short observational timeseries.</p>
Warm season heavy rainfall in Minnesota can lead to flooding with serious impacts on life 10 and infrastructure. Situated in a transition zone between humid eastern and semi-arid western 11 conditions in the U.S., Minnesota experiences large spatial variability in precipitation. Previous research has often lacked spatiotemporal detail important for heavy rainfall analysis for Minnesota. This research used Stage IV hourly precipitation data with 4-km grid spacing during May-September 2004-2020 to analyze Minnesota spatial, seasonal, and event-based characteristics. Rain event frequency, accumulation, hours, and intensities were compared for all rain events (>2.5 mm) and heavy rain events (>36 mm). For all rain events, results showed the highest regional median monthly rain event frequency (>6 events) in June and the lowest (<5 events) in September. Median monthly accumulations were largest (∼75 mm) in June, followed by July and August. Monthly total rain event hours at a point peaked around 20 h in May in southeastern Minnesota. Smaller event accumulations occurred more frequently than larger accumulations, and event mean intensities were higher in summertime (June-August) than in May and September for rain events and heavy rain events. Heavy rain event region-based analyses showed monthly peaks for frequency in July-August, accumulation in July, and event hours in June-July and September. Median heavy rain event durations were shorter during June-August than in May and September. Monthly heavy rain event accumulation as a percent of all rain event accumulation was greatest in September (24%). These results establish a foundation for future research into precipitation patterns and trends.
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