SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. MethodsWe used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13410.001

Background: The prevalence of childhood obesity is increasing rapidly in low-and middle-income countries, and informed policies to tackle the problem must be defined. Objective: We systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of school-based interventions targeting dietary behavior and/or physical activity for the primary prevention of obesity in children and adolescents aged 6-18 y in low-and middle-income countries. Design: We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, CENTRAL, ERIC, Cochrane Library, and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases for peer-reviewed controlled studies published in English, Spanish, French, German, or Dutch between January 1990 and July 2011. The quality of the included studies was appraised independently by 2 authors who used the Effective Public Health Practice Project tool. Results: From a total of 7218 unique references, we retained 22 studies. Most of the interventions (82%) had a positive effect on dietary behavior and physical activity behavior (effect size ranged from 20.48 to 1.61). BMI decreased in 8 studies (effect size ranged from 20.7 to 0.0). Effective interventions targeted both diet and physical activity, involved multiple stakeholders, and integrated educational activities into the school curriculum. Conclusions: School-based interventions have the potential to improve dietary and physical activity behavior and to prevent unhealthy body weights in low-and middle-income countries. To reach their full potential, interventions should conduct process evaluations to document program implementation. The effect and the pathways through which interventions have this effect need to be better documented through rigorous evaluation studies.Am J Clin Nutr 2012;96:415-38.

BackgroundIt is imperative to track dietary quality and progress in nutritional outcomes in a population to develop timely interventions. Dietary diversity is a commonly used proxy to assess dietary quality in low-income countries. This study identified predictors of household dietary diversity in Ethiopia and pattern of consumption of animal source food (ASF) among households.MethodsSecondary data were analyzed from the 2011 Ethiopian Welfare Monitoring Survey (WMS). This survey used a structured questionnaire to collect socio-demographic and economic data. Dietary data were collected using a dietary diversity questionnaire measuring dietary diversity over the past 1 week. A Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was constructed according to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) guidelines. Consumption of ASFs is described by its distribution among the regions and by HDDS. Multiple logistic regression analysis was fitted to identify independent predictors for HDDS.ResultsA total of 27,995 households were included in the analyses. A little over half of the study households (52.2%) had more than four household members, and 75% of households were male headed. The mean HHDS was five food groups. Cereals were the most commonly (96%) consumed food groups. Fish, egg and fruits, on the other hand, were the least consumed food groups. ASFs were consumed in greater proportion among households with higher HDDS. Being part of the higher and middle socio economic strata (P < 0.001), literacy (P < 0.01), urban residence (P < 0.01), male headed household (P < 0.01), larger family size (P <0.01) and owning livestock (P < 0.01) were positively associated with higher HDDS.ConclusionsConsidering these findings, nutrition sensitive interventions which address the problem through economic and educational empowerment and modern technologies supporting agricultural practices need to be designed to increase both local production and increased consumption.

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to identify factors influencing eating behavior of Ecuadorian adolescents - from the perspective of parents, school staff and adolescents - to develop a conceptual framework for adolescents' eating behavior.Study designTwenty focus groups (N = 144 participants) were conducted separately with adolescents aged 11–15 y (n (focus groups)  = 12, N (participants)  = 80), parents (n = 4, N = 32) and school staff (n = 4, N = 32) in rural and urban Ecuador. A semi-structured questioning route was developed based on the ‘Attitude, Social influences and Self-efficacy’ model and the socio-ecological model to assess the relevance of behavioral and environmental factors in low- and middle-income countries. Two researchers independently analyzed verbatim transcripts for emerging themes, using deductive thematic content analysis. Data were analyzed using NVivo 8.ResultsAll groups recognized the importance of eating healthily and key individual factors in Ecuadorian adolescents' food choices were: financial autonomy, food safety perceptions, lack of self-control, habit strength, taste preferences and perceived peer norms. Environmental factors included the poor nutritional quality of food and its easy access at school. In their home and family environment, time and convenience completed the picture as barriers to eating healthily. Participants acknowledged the impact of the changing socio-cultural environment on adolescents' eating patterns. Availability of healthy food at home and financial constraints differed between settings and socio-economic groups.ConclusionOur findings endorse the importance of investigating behavioral and environmental factors that influence and mediate healthy dietary behavior prior to intervention development. Several culture-specific factors emerged that were incorporated into a conceptual framework for developing health promotion interventions in Ecuador.

Background: Although physical activity is recognised to be an important determinant of health and nutritional status, few instruments have been developed to assess physical activity in developing countries. The aim of this study was to compare the validity of the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and a locally adapted version of the Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents (PAQA) for use in school going adolescents in rural and urban areas in Vietnam.