Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services 1,2 . Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982-2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO 2 fertilization e ects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO 2 fertilization e ects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. The regional e ects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, di erences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.Changes in vegetation greenness have been reported at regional and continental scales on the basis of forest inventory and satellite measurements 3-8 . Long-term changes in vegetation greenness are driven by multiple interacting biogeochemical drivers and land-use effects 9 . Biogeochemical drivers include the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration (eCO 2 ), regional climate change (temperature, precipitation and radiation), and varying rates of nitrogen deposition. Land-use-related drivers involve changes in land cover and in land management intensity, including fertilization, irrigation, forestry and grazing 10 . None of these driving factors can be considered in isolation, given their strong interactions with one another. Previously, a few studies had investigated the drivers of global greenness trends 6,7,11 , with a limited number of models and satellite observations, which prevented an appropriate quantification of uncertainties 12 .Here, we investigate trends of leaf area index (LAI) and their drivers for the period 1982 to 2009 using three remotely sensed data sets (GIMMS3g, GLASS and GLOMAP) and outputs from ten ecosystem models run at global extent (see Supplementary Information). We use the growing season integrated leaf area index (hereafter, LAI; Methods) as the variable of our study. We first analyse global and regional LAI trends for the study period and differences between the three data sets. Using modelling results, we then quantify the contributions of CO 2 fertilization, climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and LCC to the observed trends...

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS ) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr À1, ranging from 0.0035 yr À1 to 0.0127 yr À1 ), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI GS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.

[1] In this paper, we present an approach for generating a consistent long-term global leaf area index (LAI) product by quantitative fusion of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and historical Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. First, a MODIS LAI series was generated from MODIS data based on the GLOBCARBON LAI algorithm. Then, the relationships between AVHRR observations and MODIS LAI were established pixel by pixel using two data series during overlapped period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006). Then the AVHRR LAI back to 1981 was estimated from historical AVHRR observations based on these pixel-level relationships. The long-term LAI series was made up by combination of AVHRR LAI (1981LAI ( -2000 and MODIS LAI (2000-2011. The LAI derived from AVHRR was intercompared with that from MODIS during the overlapped period. The results show that the LAIs from these two different sensors are good consistency, with LAI differences are within AE0.6 over 99.0% vegetated pixels. The long-term LAI was also compared with field measurements, which has an error of 0.81 LAI on average. Compared with the LAI retrieved directly from the GLOBCARBON algorithm, the LAI derived by our method has a lower temporal noise, which means uncertainties from the low quality of AVHRR measurements can be reduced with the aid of high-quality MODIS data. This product is hosted on the GlobalMapping Web site (http://www.globalmapping.org/globalLAI) for free download, which will provide a long-term LAI over 30 years for modeling the carbon and water cycles.