By incorporating market impact and momentum traders into an agent-based model, we investigate the conditions for the occurrence of self-reinforcing feedback loops and the coevolutionary mechanism of prices and strategies. For low market impact, the price fluctuations are originally large. The existence of momentum traders has little impact on the change of price fluctuations but destroys the equilibrium between the trend-following and trendrejecting strategies. The trend-following herd behaviors become dominant. A self-reinforcing feedback loop exists. For high market impact, the existence of momentum traders leads to an increase in price fluctuations. The trend-following strategies of rational individuals are suppressed while the trend-following strategies of momentum traders are promoted. The crowdanticrowd behaviors become dominant. A negative feedback loop exists. A theoretical analysis indicates that, for low market impact, the majority effect is beneficial for the trend-followers to earn more, which in turn promotes the trend-following strategies. For high market impact, the minority effect causes the trend-followers to suffer great losses, which in turn suppresses the Email address: zlxxwj@163.com (Li-Xin Zhong a )
By incorporating segregated spatial domain and individual-based linkage into the SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, we propose a generalized epidemic model which can change from the territorial epidemic model to the networked epidemic model. The role of the individual-based linkage between different spatial domains is investigated. As we adjust the timescale parameter τ from 0 to unity, which represents the degree of activation of the individual-based linkage, three regions are found. Within the region of 0 < τ < 0.02, the epidemic is determined by local movement and is sensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.02 < τ < 0.5, the epidemic is insensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.5 < τ < 1, the outbreak of the epidemic is determined by the structure of the individualbased linkage. As we keep an eye on the first region, the role of activating the individual-based linkage in the present model is similar to the role of the shortcuts in the two-dimensional small world network. Only activating a small number of the individual-based linkage can prompt the outbreak of the epidemic globally. The role of narrowing segregated spatial domain and reducing mobility in epidemic control is checked. These two measures are found to be conducive to curbing the spread of infectious disease only when the global interaction is suppressed. A log-log relation between the change in the number of infected individuals and the timescale τ is found.By calculating the epidemic threshold and the mean first encounter time, we heuristically analyze the microscopic characteristics of the propagation of the epidemic in the present model.
By incorporating a multilayer network and time-decaying memory into the original voter model, the coupled effects of spatial and temporal cumulation of peer pressure on consensus are investigated. Heterogeneity in peer pressure and time-decaying mechanism are both found to be detrimental to consensus. The transition points, below which a consensus can always be reached and above which two opposed opinions are more likely to coexist, are found. A mean-field analysis indicates that the phase transitions in the present model are governed by the cumulative influence of peer pressure and the updating threshold. A functional relation between the consensus threshold and the decaying rate of the influence of peer pressure is found. As to the time to reach a consensus, it is governed by the coupling of the memory length and the decaying rate. An intermediate decaying rate may lead to much lower time to reach a consensus.
Facing a heavy task, any single person can only make a limited contribution and team cooperation is needed. As one enjoys the benefit of the public goods, the potential benefits of the project are not always maximized and may be partly wasted. By incorporating individual ability and project benefit into the original public goods game, we study the coupling effect of the four parameters, the upper limit of individual contribution, the upper limit of individual benefit, the needed project cost and the upper limit of project benefit on the evolution of cooperation. Coevolving with the individual-level group size preferences, an increase in the upper limit of individual benefit promotes cooperation while an increase in the upper limit of individual contribution inhibits cooperation. The coupling of the upper limit of individual contribution and the needed project cost determines the critical point of the upper limit of project benefit, where the equilibrium frequency of cooperators reaches its highest level. Above the critical point, an increase in the upper limit of project benefit inhibits cooperation. The evolution of cooperation is closely related to the preferred group-size distribution. A functional relation between the frequency of cooperators and the dominant group size is found.
How evolution favors cooperation is a fundamental issue in social and economic systems. By incorporating multiple learning mechanisms in project selection into the threshold public goods game, we have investigated the coupling effect of mutation and imitation on the evolution of cooperation. Compared with the situation where there is no project selection mechanism, the existence of project selection may suppress or promote cooperation depending upon different learning mechanisms. There exists a critical ratio between the imitators and the mutants in the population, below which cooperation is suppressed while above which cooperation is promoted. With the coevolutionary mechanism of individual strategies and individual preferences, a higher level of cooperation corresponds to a larger scale of projects. A theoretical analysis indicates that, as most of the individuals are mutants, the coevolutionary mechanism is governed by the mutation process, which leads to a lower level of cooperation. As most of the individuals are imitators,
By incorporating delayed epidemic information and self-restricted travel behavior into the SIS model, we have investigated the coupled effects of timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s sensitivity to the epidemic information on contagion. In the population with only local random movement, whether the epidemic information is delayed or not has no effect on the spread of the epidemic. People’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information leads to their risk aversion behavior and the spread of the epidemic is suppressed. In the population with only global person-to-person movement, timely and accurate epidemic information helps an individual cut off the connections with the infected in time and the epidemic is brought under control in no time. A delay in the epidemic information leads to an individual’s misjudgment of who has been infected and who has not, which in turn leads to rapid progress and a higher peak of the epidemic. In the population with coexistence of local and global movement, timely and accurate epidemic information and people’s high sensitivity to the epidemic information play an important role in curbing the epidemic. A theoretical analysis indicates that people’s misjudgment caused by the delayed epidemic information leads to a higher encounter probability between the susceptible and the infected and people’s self-restricted travel behavior helps reduce such an encounter probability. A functional relation between the ratio of infected individuals and the susceptible-infected encounter probability has been found.
In nature and human societies, the effects of homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics on the evolution of collective behaviors are quite different from each other. By incorporating pair pattern strategies and reference point strategies into an agent-based model, we have investigated the effects of homogeneous and heterogeneous investment strategies and reference points on price movement. In the market flooded with the investors with homogeneous investment strategies or homogeneous reference points, large price fluctuations occur. In the market flooded with the investors with heterogeneous investment strategies or heterogeneous reference points, moderate price fluctuations occur. The coexistence of different kinds of investment strategies can not only refrain from the occurrence of large price fluctuations but also the occurrence of no-trading states. The present model reveals that the coexistence of heterogeneous populations, whether they are the individuals with heterogeneous investment strategies or heterogeneous reference points of stock prices, is an important factor for the stability of the stock market.
In modern society, on the one hand, a highly developed transportation system has greatly promoted population mobility, which makes the prevention and control of an epidemic difficult. On the other hand, a highly developed information system has promoted real-time remote communication, which helps people obtain timely and accurate epidemic information and protect themselves from being infected. In order to make best use of the advantages and bypass the disadvantages of modern technologies in the prevention and control of an infectious disease, there is a need to give an insight into the relationship between the spread of an epidemic and people's risk aversion behaviors. By incorporating delayed epidemic information and self-restricted travel behavior into the SIS model, we have investigated the coupled effects of timely and accurate epidemic information and people's sensitivity to the epidemic information on contagion. In the population with only local random movement, whether the epidemic information is delayed or not has no effect
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