Tropical peatland fires play a significant role in the context of global warming through emissions of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. However, the state of knowledge on carbon loss from these fires is still poorly developed with few studies reporting the associated mass of peat consumed. Furthermore, spatial and temporal variations in burn depth have not been previously quantified. This study presents the first spatially explicit investigation of fire-driven tropical peat loss and its variability. An extensive airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) dataset was used to develop a pre-fire peat surface modeling methodology, enabling the spatially differentiated quantification of burned area depth over the entire burned area. We observe a strong interdependence between burned area depth, fire frequency and distance to drainage canals. For the first time, we show that relative burned area depth decreases over the first four fire events and is constant thereafter. Based on our results, we revise existing peat and carbon loss estimates for recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands. We suggest values for the dry mass of peat fuel consumed that are 206 t ha -1 for initial fires, reducing to 115 t ha -1 for second, 69 t ha -1 for third and 23 t ha -1 for successive fires, which are 58% to 7% of the current IPCC Tier 1 default value for all fires.In our study area, this results in carbon losses of 114, 64, 38 and 13 t C ha -1 for first to fourth fires, respectively. Furthermore, we show that with increasing proximity to drainage canals both burned area depth and the probability of recurrent fires increase and present equations explaining burned area depth as a function of distance to drainage canal. This improved knowledge enables a more accurate approach to emissions accounting and will support IPCC Tier 2 reporting of fire emissions.

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Tropical peatlands of the western part of insular Southeast Asia have experienced extensive land cover changes since 1990. Typically involving drainage, these land cover changes have resulted in increased peat oxidation in the upper peat profile. In this paper we provide current (2015) and cumulative carbon emissions estimates since 1990 from peat oxidation in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo, utilizing newly published peatland land cover information and the recently agreed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) peat oxidation emission values for tropical peatland areas. Our results highlight the change of one of the Earth's most efficient long-term carbon sinks to a short-term emission source, with cumulative carbon emissions since 1990 estimated to have been in the order of 2.5 Gt C. Current (2015) levels of emissions are estimated at around 146 Mt C yr À1 , with a range of 132-159 Mt C yr À1 depending on the selection of emissions factors for different land cover types. 44% (or 64 Mt C yr À1 ) of the emissions come from industrial plantations (mainly oil palm and Acacia pulpwood), followed by 34% (49 Mt C yr À1 ) of emissions from small-holder areas. Thus, altogether 78% of current peat oxidation emissions come from managed land cover types. Although based on the latest information, these estimates may still include considerable, yet currently unquantifiable, uncertainties (e.g. due to uncertainties in the extent of peatlands and drainage networks) which need to be focused on in future research. In comparison, fire induced carbon dioxide emissions over the past ten years for the entire equatorial Southeast Asia region have been estimated to average 122 Mt C yr À1 (www.globalfiredata.org/_index.html). The results emphasise that whilst reducing emissions from peat fires is important, urgent efforts are also needed to mitigate the constantly high level of emissions arising from peat drainage, regardless of fire occurrence.

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha−1 per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

Tropical peatlands cover over 25 Mha in Southeast Asia and are estimated to contain around 70 Gt of carbon. Peat swamp forest ecosystems are an important part of the region's natural resources supporting unique flora and fauna endemic to Southeast Asia. Over recent years, industrial plantation development on peatland, especially for oil palm cultivation, has created intense debate due to its potentially adverse social and environmental effects. The lack of objective up‐to‐date information on the extent of industrial plantations has complicated quantification of their regional and global environmental consequences, both in terms of loss of forest and biodiversity as well as increases in carbon emissions. Based on visual interpretation of high‐resolution (30 m) satellite images, we find that industrial plantations covered over 3.1 Mha (20%) of the peatlands of Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2010, surpassing the area of Belgium and causing an annual carbon emission from peat decomposition of 230–310 Mt CO2e. The majority (62%) of the plantations were located on the island of Sumatra, and over two‐thirds (69%) of all industrial plantations were developed for oil palm cultivation, with the remainder mostly being Acacia plantations for paper pulp production. Historical analysis shows strong acceleration of plantation development in recent years: 70% of all industrial plantations have been established since 2000 and only 4% of the current plantation area existed in 1990. ‘Business‐as‐usual’ projections of future conversion rates, based on historical rates over the past two decades, indicate that 6–9 Mha of peatland in insular Southeast Asia may be converted to plantations by the year 2020, unless land use planning policies or markets for products change. This would increase the annual carbon emission to somewhere between 380 and 920 Mt CO2e by 2020 depending on water management practices and the extent of plantations.

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Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site‐to‐site variation in height–diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan‐tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height.Using a pan‐tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in‐field ground‐based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally derived height–diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement.Using cross‐validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate‐based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand‐level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over‐ or under‐estimation bias when compared with biomass estimates using field measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height–diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size‐class stratified approaches.Our results indicate that even limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height–diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample.

ABSTRACT. Oil palm has increasingly been established on peatlands throughout Indonesia. One of the concerns is that the drainage required for cultivating oil palm in peatlands leads to soil subsidence, potentially increasing future flood risks. This study analyzes the hydrological and economic effects of oil palm production in a peat landscape in Central Kalimantan. We examine two land use scenarios, one involving conversion of the complete landscape including a large peat area to oil palm plantations, and another involving mixed land use including oil palm plantations, jelutung (jungle rubber; (Dyera spp.) plantations, and natural forest. The hydrological effect was analyzed through flood risk modeling using a high-resolution digital elevation model. For the economic analysis, we analyzed four ecosystem services: oil palm production, jelutung production, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat. This study shows that after 100 years, in the oil palm scenario, about 67% of peat in the study area will be subject to regular flooding. The flood-prone area will be unsuitable for oil palm and other crops requiring drained soils. The oil palm scenario is the most profitable only in the short term and when the externalities of oil palm production, i.e., the costs of CO 2 emissions, are not considered. In the examined scenarios, the social costs of carbon emissions exceed the private benefits from oil palm plantations in peat. Depending upon the local hydrology, income from jelutung, which can sustainably be grown in undrained conditions and does not lead to soil subsidence, outweighs that from oil palm after several decades. These findings illustrate the trade-offs faced at present in Indonesian peatland management and point to economic advantages of an approach that involves expansion of oil palm on mineral lands while conserving natural peat forests and using degraded peat for crops that do not require drainage.