For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre-and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to theeBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.
A growing concern among restoration ecologists is inadvertently creating ecological traps, yet identifying ecological traps is difficult, particularly over a large region and for an entire suite of species. Here we use an example to show that restoration ecologists can evaluate the risk of creating ecological traps. We reviewed the literature and synthesized data to evaluate the risk that restored riparian forests create ecological traps for riparian birds by attracting dense populations of the brood parasite, Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater; hereafter cowbird) in the Central Valley of California, U.S. We found that most riparian bird populations are not highly vulnerable to cowbird parasitism, that there were no differences in cowbird density or parasitism rates between restored and remnant riparian forests, and that the riparian bird community responded positively to restoration. We concluded that riparian restoration in California's Central Valley has a low risk of creating ecological traps through cowbird parasitism. We recommend that restoration ecologists consider the potential for creating an ecological trap early and throughout the restoration design and implementation process, and include plans to monitor species responses to restoration, both in restored areas and in source populations nearby, as well as any specific conditions associated with a potential trap.
The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is an important region for bird conservation in California, particularly as part of a large, productive estuary on the Pacific Flyway. The Delta currently provides habitat to an abundant, diverse community of birds, but it is likely only a small fraction of what the Delta’s bird community once was. Meeting the goal of restoring a healthy Delta ecosystem is legislatively required to include providing habitat for birds among the conservation goals and strategies in the Delta Plan, yet birds and their habitat needs are often not addressed in science syntheses, conservation planning, and large-scale restoration initiatives in the Delta. In this essay, the authors provide an avian perspective on the Delta, synthesizing recent scientific work to describe factors that contribute to the Delta’s current importance for birds, and the conservation needs of the diverse array of bird species that call the Delta home.
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