Rates of random, spontaneous mutation can vary plastically, dependent upon the environment. Such plasticity affects evolutionary trajectories and may be adaptive. We recently identified an inverse plastic association between mutation rate and population density at 1 locus in 1 species of bacterium. It is unknown how widespread this association is, whether it varies among organisms, and what molecular mechanisms of mutagenesis or repair are required for this mutation-rate plasticity. Here, we address all 3 questions. We identify a strong negative association between mutation rate and population density across 70 years of published literature, comprising hundreds of mutation rates estimated using phenotypic markers of mutation (fluctuation tests) from all domains of life and viruses. We test this relationship experimentally, determining that there is indeed density-associated mutation-rate plasticity (DAMP) at multiple loci in both eukaryotes and bacteria, with up to 23-fold lower mutation rates at higher population densities. We find that the degree of plasticity varies, even among closely related organisms. Nonetheless, in each domain tested, DAMP requires proteins scavenging the mutagenic oxidised nucleotide 8-oxo-dGTP. This implies that phenotypic markers give a more precise view of mutation rate than previously believed: having accounted for other known factors affecting mutation rate, controlling for population density can reduce variation in mutation-rate estimates by 93%. Widespread DAMP, which we manipulate genetically in disparate organisms, also provides a novel trait to use in the fight against the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. Such a prevalent environmental association and conserved mechanism suggest that mutation has varied plastically with population density since the early origins of life.

Variation of mutation rate at a particular site in a particular genotype, in other words mutation rate plasticity (MRP), can be caused by stress or ageing. However, mutation rate control by other factors is less well characterized. Here we show that in wild-type Escherichia coli (K-12 and B strains), the mutation rate to rifampicin resistance is plastic and inversely related to population density: lowering density can increase mutation rates at least threefold. This MRP is genetically switchable, dependent on the quorum-sensing gene luxS—specifically its role in the activated methyl cycle—and is socially mediated via cell–cell interactions. Although we identify an inverse association of mutation rate with fitness under some circumstances, we find no functional link with stress-induced mutagenesis. Our experimental manipulation of mutation rates via the social environment raises the possibility that such manipulation occurs in nature and could be exploited medically.

Evolution depends on mutations. For an individual genotype, the rate at which mutations arise is known to increase with various stressors (stress-induced mutagenesis—SIM) and decrease at high final population density (density-associated mutation-rate plasticity—DAMP). We hypothesised that these two forms of mutation-rate plasticity would have opposing effects across a nutrient gradient. Here we test this hypothesis, culturing Escherichia coli in increasingly rich media. We distinguish an increase in mutation rate with added nutrients through SIM (dependent on error-prone polymerases Pol IV and Pol V) and an opposing effect of DAMP (dependent on MutT, which removes oxidised G nucleotides). The combination of DAMP and SIM results in a mutation rate minimum at intermediate nutrient levels (which can support 7 × 108 cells ml−1). These findings demonstrate a strikingly close and nuanced relationship of ecological factors—stress and population density—with mutation, the fuel of all evolution.

We study optimal solutions to an abstract optimization problem for measures, which is a generalization of classical variational problems in information theory and statistical physics. In the classical problems, information and relative entropy are defined using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and for this reason optimal measures belong to a oneparameter exponential family. Measures within such a family have the property of mutual absolute continuity. Here we show that this property characterizes other families of optimal positive measures if a functional representing information has a strictly convex dual. Mutual absolute continuity of optimal probability measures allows us to strictly separate deterministic and non-deterministic Markov transition kernels, which play an important role in theories of decisions, estimation, control, communication and computation. We show that deterministic transitions are strictly sub-optimal, unless information resource with a strictly convex dual is unconstrained. For illustration, we construct an example where, unlike non-deterministic, any deterministic kernel either has negatively infinite expected utility (unbounded expected error) or communicates infinite information.

We investigate the problem of optimal control of mutation by asexual self-replicating organisms represented by points in a metric space. We introduce the notion of a relatively monotonic fitness landscape and consider a generalisation of Fisher's geometric model of adaptation for such spaces. Using a Hamming space as a prime example, we derive the probability of adaptation as a function of reproduction parameters (e.g. mutation size or rate). Optimal control rules for the parameters are derived explicitly for some relatively monotonic landscapes, and then a general information-based heuristic is introduced. We then evaluate our theoretical control functions against optimal mutation functions evolved from a random population of functions using a meta genetic algorithm. Our experimental results show a close match between theory and experiment. We demonstrate this result both in artificial fitness landscapes, defined by a Hamming distance, and a natural landscape, where fitness is defined by a DNA-protein affinity. We discuss how a control of mutation rate could occur and evolve in natural organisms. We also outline future directions of this work.

Evolutionary rescue following environmental change requires mutations permitting population growth in the new environment. If change is severe enough to prevent most of the population reproducing, rescue becomes reliant on mutations already present. If change is sustained, the fitness effects in both environments, and how they are associated-termed 'environmental pleiotropy'-may determine which alleles are ultimately favoured. A population's demographic history-its size over time-influences the variation present. Although demographic history is known to affect the probability of evolutionary rescue, how it interacts with environmental pleiotropy during severe and sustained environmental change remains unexplored. Here, we demonstrate how these factors interact during antibiotic resistance evolution, a key example of evolutionary rescue fuelled by pre-existing mutations with pleiotropic fitness effects. We combine published data with novel simulations to characterise environmental pleiotropy and its effects on resistance evolution under different demographic histories. Comparisons among resistance alleles typically revealed no correlation for fitness-i.e., neutral pleiotropy-above and below the sensitive strain's minimum inhibitory concentration. Resistance allele frequency following experimental evolution showed opposing correlations with their fitness effects in the presence and absence of antibiotic. Simulations demonstrated that effects of environmental pleiotropy on allele frequencies depended on demographic history. At the population level, the major influence of environmental pleiotropy was on mean fitness, rather than the probability of evolutionary rescue or diversity. Our work suggests that determining both environmental pleiotropy and demographic history is critical for predicting resistance evolution, and we discuss the practicalities of this during in vivo evolution.

Populations of individuals exist in a wide range of sizes, from billions of microorganisms to fewer than ten individuals in some critically endangered species. In any evolutionary system, there is significant evolutionary pressure to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust; at high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness, a concept that has been referred to as survival-of-the-flattest. Previous studies have not found a relationship between population size and the mutation rate that can be tolerated before fitter individuals are outcompeted by those that have a greater mutational robustness. However, using a genetic algorithm with a simple two-peak fitness landscape, we show that the mutation rates at which the high, narrow peak and the lower, broader peak are lost for increasing population sizes can be approximated by exponential functions. In addition, there is evidence for a continuum of mutation rates representing a transition from survival-of-the-fittest to survival-of-the-flattest and subsequently to the error catastrophe. The effect of population size on the critical mutation rate is shown to be particularly noticeable in small populations. This provides new insight into the factors that can affect survival-of-the-flattest in small populations, and has implications for populations under threat of local extinction.

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